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The Role of Relative Cohort Size and Relative Income in the Demographic Transition

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  • Diane Macunovich

    (Department of Economics, University of Redlands)

Abstract

This paper summarizes the reslts of other analyses by the author with regard to the importance of relative cohort size (RCS) in determining male relative income (the income of young adults relative to prime-age workers) and general patterns of economid growth, and in turn influencing fertility in the currently more-developed nations. It then goes on to demonstrate that these same effects appear to have been operating in all of the 100-odd nations which have experienced the fertility transition since 1950. Parameter estimates based on the experience of all 189 countries identified by the United Nations between 1950 and 1995 are used to simulate the effects on fertility of migration from Third to First World countries. This exercise suggests that we get the best of all possible outcomes with migration: population is reduced in "overcrowded" Third World nations, total world population growth is substantially reduced, and scores of children are given the opportunity of growing up with all the educational and health advantages of United States residents.

Suggested Citation

  • Diane Macunovich, 1999. "The Role of Relative Cohort Size and Relative Income in the Demographic Transition," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 9, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    • Handle: RePEc:max:cprwps:9
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    File URL: https://surface.syr.edu/cpr/138/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard A. Easterlin, 1968. "Population, Labor Force, and Long Swings in Economic Growth: The American Experience," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number east68-1, March.
    2. Macunovich, D.J., 1996. "Relative Income and Price of Time: Exploring their effcts on U.S. Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation, 1963-1993," Department of Economics Working Papers 174, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    3. Diane J. Macunovich, 1998. "Fertility and the Easterlin hypothesis: An assessment of the literature," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 53-111.
    4. Abernethy, Virginia, 1993. "The demographic transition revisited: lessons for foreign aid and U.S. immigration policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 235-252, December.
    5. Welch, Finis, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 65-97, October.
    6. Francine D. Blau, 1992. "The Fertility of Immigrant Women: Evidence from High-Fertility Source Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Immigration and the Work Force: Economic Consequences for the United States and Source Areas, pages 93-134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Richard B. Freeman, 1979. "The Effect of Demographic Factors on Age-Earnings Profiles," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 14(3), pages 289-318.
    8. Diane J. Macunovich, 1999. "The fortunes of one's birth: Relative cohort size and the youth labor market in the United States," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 215-272.
    9. William Lavely & Ronald Freedman, 1990. "The Origins of the Chinese Fertility Decline," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 27(3), pages 357-367, August.
    10. Macunovich, Diane J, 1998. "Relative Cohort Size and Inequality in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 259-264, May.
    11. Macunovich, Diane J., 1998. "Race and relative income/price of time effects on U.S. fertility," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 365-400.
    12. Diane Macunovich, 1999. "The Baby Boom As It Ages: How Has It Affected Patterns of Consumptions and Savings in the United States?," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 7, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    13. George J. Borjas & Richard B. Freeman, 1992. "Immigration and the Work Force: Economic Consequences for the United States and Source Areas," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number borj92-1, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Van Bavel & David S. Reher, 2013. "The Baby Boom and Its Causes: What We Know and What We Need to Know," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(2), pages 257-288, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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