The Role of Relative Cohort Size and Relative Income in the Demographic Transition
This paper summarizes the reslts of other analyses by the author with regard to the importance of relative cohort size (RCS) in determining male relative income (the income of young adults relative to prime-age workers) and general patterns of economid growth, and in turn influencing fertility in the currently more-developed nations. It then goes on to demonstrate that these same effects appear to have been operating in all of the 100-odd nations which have experienced the fertility transition since 1950. Parameter estimates based on the experience of all 189 countries identified by the United Nations between 1950 and 1995 are used to simulate the effects on fertility of migration from Third to First World countries. This exercise suggests that we get the best of all possible outcomes with migration: population is reduced in "overcrowded" Third World nations, total world population growth is substantially reduced, and scores of children are given the opportunity of growing up with all the educational and health advantages of United States residents.
|Date of creation:||Mar 1999|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, New York USA 13244-1020|
Phone: (315) 443-3114
Fax: (315) 443-1081
Web page: http://www.maxwell.syr.edu/cpr.aspx
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francine D. Blau, 1992.
"The Fertility of Immigrant Women: Evidence from High-Fertility Source Countries,"
in: Immigration and the Workforce: Economic Consequences for the United States and Source Areas, pages 93-134
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francine D. Blau, 1991. "The Fertility of Immigrant Women: Evidence from High Fertility Source Countries," NBER Working Papers 3608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- George J. Borjas & Richard B. Freeman, 1992. "Immigration and the Workforce: Economic Consequences for the United States and Source Areas," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number borj92-1, Enero.
- Diane J. Macunovich, 1999.
"The fortunes of one's birth: Relative cohort size and the youth labor market in the United States,"
Journal of Population Economics,
Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 215-272.
- Diane Macunovich, 1999. "The Fortune of One's Birth: Relative Cohort Size and the Youth Labor Market in the United States," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 6, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- Welch, Finis, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 65-97, October.
- Diane Macunovich, 1999. "The Baby Boom As It Ages: How Has It Affected Patterns of Consumptions and Savings in the United States?," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 7, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- Finis Welch, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," UCLA Economics Working Papers 146, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Diane J. Macunovich, 1998. "Fertility and the Easterlin hypothesis: An assessment of the literature," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 53-111.
- Richard B. Freeman, 1979.
"The Effect of Demographic Factors on Age-Earnings Profiles,"
Journal of Human Resources,
University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 14(3), pages 289-318.
- Richard B. Freeman, 1979. "The Effect of Demographic Factors on Age-Earnings Profiles," NBER Working Papers 0316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Macunovich, D.J., 1996. "Relative Income and Price of Time: Exploring their effcts on U.S. Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation, 1963-1993," Department of Economics Working Papers 174, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- Macunovich, Diane J, 1998. "Relative Cohort Size and Inequality in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 259-264, May.
- Abernethy, Virginia, 1993. "The demographic transition revisited: lessons for foreign aid and U.S. immigration policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 235-252, December.
- Macunovich, Diane J., 1998. "Race and relative income/price of time effects on U.S. fertility," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 365-400.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:max:cprwps:9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kelly Bogart)or (Katrina Wingle)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.