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A Simulation Model of the Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth in Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Mahesh Karra

    (Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health)

  • David Canning

    (Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Joshua Wilde

    (Department of Economics, University of South Florida)

Abstract

We investigate the effects of a decline in fertility on economic growth and development outcomes using a macrosimulation model. We incorporate three fertility effects that have previously not been included in such models: the effect of fertility on child health and later worker productivity; the effect of fertility on savings; and a feedback mechanism from female education to fertility, in which changes in female education that are induced by declining fertility in turn alter subsequent fertility. We also improve the model of the economy by incorporating a more realistic three-sector framework and by allowing for labor market imperfections. Using data from Nigeria, we find that adding these channels roughly doubles the effect of an initial fertility decline on income per capita after 50 years when compared to previous simulation results.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahesh Karra & David Canning & Joshua Wilde, 2015. "A Simulation Model of the Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth in Africa," Working Papers 0315, University of South Florida, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:usf:wpaper:0315
    as

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    File URL: https://www.usf.edu/arts-sciences/departments/economics/documents/Karra%20Canning%20Wilde%20-%20Macrosimulation%20Model%20-%20MVK%2012-10-15.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Family Planning; Economic Growth; Macrosimulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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