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The demographic transition and stagnation in countries vulnerable to climate change

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  • Dao, Nguyen Thang
  • Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis

Abstract

Climate change, environmental degradation, and high population growth can trap Sub-Saharan Africa in prolonged economic stagnation. We develop a novel theoretical framework showing how climate-induced resource depletion increases women's time spent collecting essentials like water and firewood, reducing investment in girls' education. This perpetuates gender inequality in education and income, slowing fertility decline and reinforcing population growth. A larger population further degrades resources, creating a feedback loop of stagnation. Empirical analysis of 44 African countries (1960 - 2017) supports these findings, revealing adverse climate effects on local resources and education gaps. Addressing these interconnected challenges is critical to breaking the stagnation cycle and fostering sustainable development.

Suggested Citation

  • Dao, Nguyen Thang & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2025. "The demographic transition and stagnation in countries vulnerable to climate change," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:178:y:2025:i:c:s0165188925001071
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105141
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • Q20 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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