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Population Density, Fertility, and Demographic Convergence in Developing Countries

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  • David De la Croix
  • Paula Eugenia Gobbi

Abstract

Whether the population tends towards a long-run stationary value depends on forces of demographic convergence. One such force is the result of fertility rates being negatively affected by population density. We test the existence of such an effect in 44 developing countries, matching georeferenced data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for half a million women with population density grids. When we correct for selection and endogeneity bias and control for the usual determinants of fertility such as education and income, a rise in density from 10 to 1000 inhabitants per square kilometer corresponds with a decrease in fertility of about 0.6 of a child. Duration analysis reveals that both age at marriage and age at first birth increase with density.
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  • David De la Croix & Paula Eugenia Gobbi, 2017. "Population Density, Fertility, and Demographic Convergence in Developing Countries," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/265946, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/265946
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    3. DJEMAI, Elodie, 2018. "Roads and the spread of HIV in Africa," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 118-141.
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    6. Pombo, Daniel Vázquez & Martinez-Rico, Jon & Marczinkowski, Hannah M., 2022. "Towards 100% renewable islands in 2040 via generation expansion planning: The case of São Vicente, Cape Verde," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 315(C).
    7. Pombo, Daniel Vázquez & Martinez-Rico, Jon & Spataru, Sergiu V. & Bindner, Henrik W. & Sørensen, Poul E., 2023. "Decarbonizing energy islands with flexibility-enabling planning: The case of Santiago, Cape Verde," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    8. I. Bryzhan & V. Chevhanova & Î. Hryhoryeva & L. Svystun, 2020. "Approaches to forecasting demography trends in the management of integrated area development," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 2, pages 21-42.
    9. de la Croix, David & Gobbi, Paula E., 2022. "Population homeostasis in sub-Saharan Africa," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    10. Arnaud Deseau, 2023. "Speed of Convergence in a Malthusian World: Weak or Strong Homeostasis?," AMSE Working Papers 2326, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    11. Wataru Takahashi, 2021. "Population Mobility Structural Analysis and Population Estimation Using a Quantitative Spatial Model," Discussion papers ron339, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    12. Ishida, Ryo & Oguro, Kazumasa & Yasuoka, Masaya, 2018. "Population density, fertility, and childcare services from the perspective of a two-region overlapping generations model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 29-39.
    13. Cassin, Lesly, 2020. "The effects of migration and pollution on cognitive skills in Caribbean economies: a theoretical analysis," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(6), pages 657-686, December.
    14. Thang Dao & Matthias Kalkuhl & Chrysovalantis Vasilakis, 2022. "The slow demographic transition in regions vulnerable to climate change," ISER Discussion Paper 1190, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    15. Elodie Djemai, 2017. "Roads and the Spread of AIDS in Africa," Working Papers DT/2017/16, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • D19 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Other
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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