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Population density, fertility, and demographic convergence in developing countries

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  • de la Croix, David
  • Gobbi, Paula E.

Abstract

Whether the population tends towards a long-run stationary value depends on forces of demographic convergence. One such force is the result of fertility rates being negatively affected by population density. We test the existence of such an effect in 44 developing countries, matching georeferenced data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for half a million women with population density grids. We find a causal relationship from population density to fertility such that a rise in density from 10 to 1000 inhabitants per square kilometer corresponds to a decrease in fertility of about 0.7 children. The corresponding half-life for population dynamics is of the order of four–five generations.

Suggested Citation

  • de la Croix, David & Gobbi, Paula E., 2017. "Population density, fertility, and demographic convergence in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 13-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:127:y:2017:i:c:p:13-24
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.02.003
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jhecon:v:60:y:2018:i:c:p:118-141 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. DJEMAI, Elodie, 2018. "Roads and the spread of HIV in Africa," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 118-141.
    3. Elodie Djemai, 2017. "Roads and the Spread of AIDS in Africa," Working Papers DT/2017/16, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic and Health Survey; Fertility; Preventive check; Agglomeration externalities; Population dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • D19 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Other
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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