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Fertility decline, baby boom and economic growth

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  • Murphy, Kevin M
  • Simon, Curtis
  • Tamura, Robert

Abstract

We present new data documenting the secular decline in fertility in the states of the United States, the dramatic convergence in fertility, child schooling, parental schooling, survival probabilities. In addition we document the disparate nature of the Baby Boom in the United States. There were two different regimes, a large Baby Boom and a Small Baby Boom. The large Baby Boom regions also had the smallest increase in child schooling, whereas the small Baby Boom regions had the largest increase in child schooling. We present suggestive evidence that falling mortality risk is strongly positively correlated with falling fertility, rising education levels of parents is strongly negatively related to fetility, and that population density is negatively related to fertility. Finally we show the robust negative correlation of mortality risk on child schooling attainment, and positve correlation of population density and child schooling attainment.

Suggested Citation

  • Murphy, Kevin M & Simon, Curtis & Tamura, Robert, 2008. "Fertility decline, baby boom and economic growth," MPRA Paper 7719, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7719
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hansen, Casper Worm, 2014. "Cause of death and development in the US," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 143-153.
    2. Tamura, Robert & Simon, Curtis, 2017. "Secular Fertility Declines, Baby Booms, And Economic Growth: International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(07), pages 1601-1672, October.
    3. Canaday, Neil & Tamura, Robert, 2009. "White discrimination in provision of black education: Plantations and towns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1490-1530, July.
    4. Matthias Doepke & Moshe Hazan & Yishay D. Maoz, 2015. "The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(3), pages 1031-1073.
    5. Tamura, Robert & Simon, Curtis & Murphy, Kevin M., 2012. "Black and White Fertility, Differential Baby Booms: The Value of Civil Rights," MPRA Paper 40921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bellou, Andriana & Cardia, Emanuela, 2014. "Baby-Boom, Baby-Bust and the Great Depression," IZA Discussion Papers 8727, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    7. Masako Kimura & Daishin Yasui, 2010. "The Galor–Weil gender-gap model revisited: from home to market," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 323-351, December.
    8. Raquel Fernandez, 2010. "Women's Rights and Development," Working Papers 2011-029, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    9. Kevin M. Murphy & Curtis J. Simon & Robert Tamura, 2011. "Black and White Fertility, Differential Baby Booms: The Value of Civil Rights (Equal Opportunity for Education)," 2011 Meeting Papers 238, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Fernández, Raquel, 2009. "Women's Rights and Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 7464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Deng, Binbin, 2009. "人口结构转变过程中生育率与经济增长的关系
      [Fertility and Economic Growth in the Process of Demographic Transition]
      ," MPRA Paper 23207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Tadashi Morita & Kazuhiro Yamamoto, 2013. "Economic geography, endogenous fertility, and agglomeration," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 13-23, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
    13. Li, Bei & Zhang, Jie, 2015. "Efficient education subsidization and the pay-as-you-use principle," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 41-50.
    14. Lien, Hsien-Ming & Wang, Ping, 2016. "The timing of childbearing: The role of human capital and personal preferences," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 247-264.
    15. de la Croix, David & Gobbi, Paula E., 2017. "Population density, fertility, and demographic convergence in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 13-24.
    16. Wang, Qingfeng & Sun, Xu, 2016. "The Role of Socio-political and Economic Factors in Fertility Decline: A Cross-country Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 360-370.
    17. Matthias Cinyabuguma & Bill Lord & Christelle Viauroux, 2012. "Revolution in U.S. Fertility, Schooling and Women's Work, 1875-1940: Assessing Proposed Explanations," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 12-04, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 30 Aug 2013.
    18. Casper Worm Hansen, 2012. "Causes of mortality and development: Evidence from large health shocks in 20th century America," Economics Working Papers 2012-29, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    19. Raquel Fernández, 2014. "Women’s rights and development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 37-80, March.
    20. Matthias Cinyabuguma & Bill Lord & Christelle Viauroux, 2009. "Schooling, Fertility, and Married Female Labor Supply: What Role for Health?," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 09-108, UMBC Department of Economics.
    21. Hansen, Casper Worm, 2012. "The effect of life expectancy on schooling: Evidence from the international health transition," Discussion Papers of Business and Economics 6/2012, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Business and Economics.
    22. Francis T. Lui, 2010. "Demographic Transition, Childless Families, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters,in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 19, pages 351-373 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Tamura, Robert & Dwyer, Gerald P. & Devereux, John & Baier, Scott, 2012. "Economic growth In the long run," MPRA Paper 41324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Raquel Fernández, 2009. "Women's Rights and Development," NBER Working Papers 15355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Hansen, Casper Worm, 2013. "Life expectancy and human capital: Evidence from the international epidemiological transition," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1142-1152.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortality; density; fertility decline; baby boom; economic growth;

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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