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Fertility Decline, Baby Boom, and Economic Growth

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  • Kevin M. Murphy
  • Curtis Simon
  • Robert Tamura

Abstract

We present new data on fertility, schooling, and child survival in fertility in the United States between 1800 and 2000. Over that period, fertility, children's schooling, and child survival converged across states and regions. Falling child mortality, rising parental education, and increased population density are all associated with falling fertility and rising children's schooling. Our data reveal two baby boom regimes. Regions that experienced large baby booms had smaller increases in child schooling, whereas regions that experienced small baby booms had larger increases. We parameterize a model that appears to fit well the broad trends in our data.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin M. Murphy & Curtis Simon & Robert Tamura, 2008. "Fertility Decline, Baby Boom, and Economic Growth," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(3), pages 262-302.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jhucap:v:2:i:3:y:2008:p:262-302
    DOI: 10.1086/593052
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tadashi Morita & Kazuhiro Yamamoto, 2013. "Economic geography, endogenous fertility, and agglomeration," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 13-23, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
    2. Bellou, Andriana & Cardia, Emanuela, 2014. "Baby-Boom, Baby-Bust and the Great Depression," IZA Discussion Papers 8727, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Hansen, Casper Worm, 2014. "Cause of death and development in the US," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 143-153.
    4. Tamura, Robert & Simon, Curtis, 2017. "Secular Fertility Declines, Baby Booms, And Economic Growth: International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(07), pages 1601-1672, October.
    5. Canaday, Neil & Tamura, Robert, 2009. "White discrimination in provision of black education: Plantations and towns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1490-1530, July.
    6. Lien, Hsien-Ming & Wang, Ping, 2016. "The timing of childbearing: The role of human capital and personal preferences," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 247-264.
    7. Matthias Doepke & Moshe Hazan & Yishay D. Maoz, 2015. "The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(3), pages 1031-1073.
    8. de la Croix, David & Gobbi, Paula E., 2017. "Population density, fertility, and demographic convergence in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 13-24.
    9. Wang, Qingfeng & Sun, Xu, 2016. "The Role of Socio-political and Economic Factors in Fertility Decline: A Cross-country Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 360-370.
    10. Tamura, Robert & Simon, Curtis & Murphy, Kevin M., 2012. "Black and White Fertility, Differential Baby Booms: The Value of Civil Rights," MPRA Paper 40921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Matthias Cinyabuguma & Bill Lord & Christelle Viauroux, 2012. "Revolution in U.S. Fertility, Schooling and Women's Work, 1875-1940: Assessing Proposed Explanations," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 12-04, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 30 Aug 2013.
    12. Masako Kimura & Daishin Yasui, 2010. "The Galor–Weil gender-gap model revisited: from home to market," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 323-351, December.
    13. Casper Worm Hansen, 2012. "Causes of mortality and development: Evidence from large health shocks in 20th century America," Economics Working Papers 2012-29, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    14. Raquel Fernandez, 2010. "Women's Rights and Development," Working Papers 2011-029, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    15. Kevin M. Murphy & Curtis J. Simon & Robert Tamura, 2011. "Black and White Fertility, Differential Baby Booms: The Value of Civil Rights (Equal Opportunity for Education)," 2011 Meeting Papers 238, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Raquel Fernández, 2014. "Women’s rights and development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 37-80, March.
    17. Fernández, Raquel, 2009. "Women's Rights and Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 7464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Matthias Cinyabuguma & Bill Lord & Christelle Viauroux, 2009. "Schooling, Fertility, and Married Female Labor Supply: What Role for Health?," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 09-108, UMBC Department of Economics.
    19. Hansen, Casper Worm, 2012. "The effect of life expectancy on schooling: Evidence from the international health transition," Discussion Papers of Business and Economics 6/2012, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Business and Economics.
    20. Francis T. Lui, 2010. "Demographic Transition, Childless Families, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters,in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 19, pages 351-373 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Deng, Binbin, 2009. "人口结构转变过程中生育率与经济增长的关系
      [Fertility and Economic Growth in the Process of Demographic Transition]
      ," MPRA Paper 23207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Tamura, Robert & Dwyer, Gerald P. & Devereux, John & Baier, Scott, 2012. "Economic growth In the long run," MPRA Paper 41324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Raquel Fernández, 2009. "Women's Rights and Development," NBER Working Papers 15355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Li, Bei & Zhang, Jie, 2015. "Efficient education subsidization and the pay-as-you-use principle," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 41-50.
    25. Hansen, Casper Worm, 2013. "Life expectancy and human capital: Evidence from the international epidemiological transition," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1142-1152.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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