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Fertility Decline, Baby Boom, and Economic Growth

Listed author(s):
  • Kevin M. Murphy
  • Curtis Simon
  • Robert Tamura

We present new data on fertility, schooling, and child survival in fertility in the United States between 1800 and 2000. Over that period, fertility, children's schooling, and child survival converged across states and regions. Falling child mortality, rising parental education, and increased population density are all associated with falling fertility and rising children's schooling. Our data reveal two baby boom regimes. Regions that experienced large baby booms had smaller increases in child schooling, whereas regions that experienced small baby booms had larger increases. We parameterize a model that appears to fit well the broad trends in our data.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/593052
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Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Human Capital.

Volume (Year): 2 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 262-302

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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jhucap:v:2:i:3:y:2008:p:262-302
DOI: 10.1086/593052
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JHC/

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  1. Werner Troesken, 2004. "Water, Race, and Disease," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number troe04-1, June.
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  9. Scott L. Baier & Gerald P. Dwyer & Robert Tamura, 2006. "How Important are Capital and Total Factor Productivity for Economic Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 23-49, January.
  10. Simon, Curtis J. & Tamura, Robert, 2009. "Do higher rents discourage fertility? Evidence from U.S. cities, 1940-2000," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 33-42, January.
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