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Secular Fertility Declines, Baby Booms and Economic Growth: International Evidence

  • Curtis Simon

    (Clemson University)

  • Robert Tamura

    (Clemson University & Atlanta FRB)

costs after the end of the Second World War, but ending by 1970. In addition we introduce a new puzzle to the profession. Given the magnitude of the Baby Boom, roughly equal to fertility in 1900 for many of these countries, why did schooling of the Baby Boom cohorts not fall to the 1900 level of their predecessors? In fact, not only do they not fall, but their schooling levels are higher than previous cohorts. Using a quantitative model we are able to identify the magnitude of the reduction in costs of education necessary to explain this paradoxical increase in schooling. We find empirical support for these cost reductions.

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2010 Meeting Papers with number 1041.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed010:1041
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  1. Scott L. Baier & Gerald P. Dwyer & Robert Tamura, 2006. "How Important are Capital and Total Factor Productivity for Economic Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 23-49, January.
  2. Simon, Curtis & Tamura, Robert, 2008. "Do higher rents discourage fertility? evidence from U.S. cities, 1940-2000," MPRA Paper 7721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Yishay Maoz & Moshe Hazan & Matthias Doepke, 2008. "The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis," 2008 Meeting Papers 668, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2003. "A stochastic model of mortality, fertility, and human capital investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 103-118, February.
  5. Tamura, Robert, 2002. "Human capital and the switch from agriculture to industry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 207-242, December.
  6. Martha J. Bailey & William J. Collins, 2009. "Did Improvements in Household Technology Cause the Baby Boom? Evidence from Electrification, Appliance Diffusion, and the Amish," NBER Working Papers 14641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Nathaniel Baum-Snow, 2007. "Did Highways Cause Suburbanization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 122(2), pages 775-805, 05.
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  9. Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2002. "The Baby Boom and Baby Bust," Economie d'Avant Garde Research Reports 1, Economie d'Avant Garde.
  10. Haurin, Donald R. & Brasington, David, 1996. "School Quality and Real House Prices: Inter- and Intrametropolitan Effects," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 351-368, December.
  11. Stefania Albanesi & Claudia Olivetti, 2013. "Maternal Health and the Baby Boom," Working Papers 2013-003, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
  12. Robert Tamura, 2004. "Human capital and economic development," Working Paper 2004-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  13. Tamura, Robert & Dwyer, Gerald P. & Devereux, John & Baier, Scott, 2012. "Economic growth In the long run," MPRA Paper 41324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Chad Turner & Robert Tamura & Sean Mulholland & Scott Baier, 2007. "Education and income of the states of the United States: 1840–2000," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 101-158, June.
  15. Daron Acemoglu & David H. Autor & David Lyle, 2004. "Women, War, and Wages: The Effect of Female Labor Supply on the Wage Structure at Midcentury," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(3), pages 497-551, June.
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  17. Schoellman, Todd, 2008. "The Causes and Consequences of Cross-Country Differences in Schooling Attainment," MPRA Paper 9243, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Francisco Covas & J.M.C. Santos Silva, 2000. "A modified hurdle model for completed fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 173-188.
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  20. Satyajit Chatterjee & Gerald Carlino, 1998. "Aggregate employment growth and the deconcentration of metropolitan employment," Working Papers 98-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  21. Robert W. Fogel & Nathaniel Grotte, 2011. "An Overview of The Changing Body: Health, Nutrition, and Human Development in the Western World Since 1700," NBER Working Papers 16938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Raquel Fernández & Alessandra Fogli & Claudia Olivetti, 2004. "Mothers and Sons: Preference Formation and Female Labor Force Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(4), pages 1249-1299, November.
  23. Cristino R. Arroyo & Junsen Zhang, 1997. "Dynamic microeconomic models of fertility choice: A survey," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 23-65.
  24. Jonathan Guryan, 2001. "Desegregation and Black Dropout Rates," NBER Working Papers 8345, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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