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Roads and the Spread of AIDS in Africa

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  • Elodie Djemai

    () (PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDa, UMR DIAL)

Abstract

We use GIS and HIV data from ve African countries to estimate the e ect of road proximity on HIV infection. We nd a negative e ect of the distance to the nearest paved road on the probability of being infected with HIV: a one standard-deviation rise in the distance (approximately 2.3 kilometers) reduces the probability of infection by 0.34-2.3 percentage points. Using slope as an instrument for road distance continues to produce a negative and signi cant estimated coecient. Alternative instrumental variables include historical routes and hypothetical lines connecting major cities as of 1890-1900. However this relationship may also re ect selection and reverse causality in individual choice of location, and we extensively discuss the role of migration. While the number of lifetime sexual partners is signi cantly in uenced by the presence of roads, in recent years the e ect of road distance in access to protection has disappeared.

Suggested Citation

  • Elodie Djemai, 2017. "Roads and the Spread of AIDS in Africa," Working Papers DT/2017/16, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  • Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201716
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    HIV/AIDS epidemic; infrastructure; geography; risk-taking; Sub-Saharan Africa;

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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