IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dia/wpaper/dt201716.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Roads and the Spread of AIDS in Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Elodie Djemai

    (PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDa, UMR DIAL)

Abstract

We use GIS and HIV data from ve African countries to estimate the effect of road proximity on HIV infection. We find a negative effect of the distance to the nearest paved road on the probability of being infected with HIV: a one standard-deviation rise in the distance (approximately 2.3 kilometers) reduces the probability of infection by 0.34-2.3 percentage points. Using slope as an instrument for road distance continues to produce a negative and significant estimated coefficient. Alternative instrumental variables include historical routes and hypothetical lines connecting major cities as of 1890-1900. However this relationship may also re ect selection and reverse causality in individual choice of location, and we extensively discuss the role of migration. While the number of lifetime sexual partners is significantly infl uenced by the presence of roads, in recent years the effect of road distance in access to protection has disappeared.

Suggested Citation

  • Elodie Djemai, 2017. "Roads and the Spread of AIDS in Africa," Working Papers DT/2017/16, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    • Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201716
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dial.ird.fr/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2017-16-Roads-and-the-Spread-of-AIDS-in-Africa.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2017
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gibbons, Stephen & Lyytikäinen, Teemu & Overman, Henry G. & Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa, 2019. "New road infrastructure: The effects on firms," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 35-50.
    2. Nathan Nunn & Diego Puga, 2012. "Ruggedness: The Blessing of Bad Geography in Africa," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 20-36, February.
    3. Lachaud, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "HIV prevalence and poverty in Africa: Micro- and macro-econometric evidences applied to Burkina Faso," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 483-504, May.
    4. Jacoby, Hanan G. & Minten, Bart, 2009. "On measuring the benefits of lower transport costs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 28-38, May.
    5. Redding, Stephen J. & Turner, Matthew A., 2015. "Transportation Costs and the Spatial Organization of Economic Activity," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1339-1398, Elsevier.
    6. Emily Oster, 2012. "Routes Of Infection: Exports And Hiv Incidence In Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1025-1058, October.
    7. Luke, Nancy, 2006. "Exchange and Condom Use in Informal Sexual Relationships in Urban Kenya," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(2), pages 319-348, January.
    8. Taryn Dinkelman, 2011. "The Effects of Rural Electrification on Employment: New Evidence from South Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3078-3108, December.
    9. Harsha Thirumurthy & Joshua Graff Zivin & Markus Goldstein, 2008. "The Economic Impact of AIDS Treatment: Labor Supply in Western Kenya," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 43(3), pages 511-552.
    10. Bird, Julia & Straub, Stéphane, 2014. "The Brasília Experiment: Road Access and the Spatial Pattern of Long-term Local Development in Brazil," TSE Working Papers 14-495, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    11. Remi Jedwab & Alexander Moradi, 2016. "The Permanent Effects of Transportation Revolutions in Poor Countries: Evidence from Africa," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(2), pages 268-284, May.
    12. Nathaniel Baum-Snow & Loren Brandt & J. Vernon Henderson & Matthew A. Turner & Qinghua Zhang, 2017. "Roads, Railroads, and Decentralization of Chinese Cities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(3), pages 435-448, July.
    13. Nathan Nunn & Leonard Wantchekon, 2011. "The Slave Trade and the Origins of Mistrust in Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3221-3252, December.
    14. Payal Hathi & Sabrina Haque & Lovey Pant & Diane Coffey & Dean Spears, 2017. "Place and Child Health: The Interaction of Population Density and Sanitation in Developing Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(1), pages 337-360, February.
    15. Molly Lipscomb & A. Mushfiq Mobarak & Tania Barham, 2013. "Development Effects of Electrification: Evidence from the Topographic Placement of Hydropower Plants in Brazil," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 200-231, April.
    16. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    17. Pierre-Philippe Combes & Miren Lafourcade, 2005. "Transport costs: measures, determinants, and regional policy implications for France," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 319-349, June.
    18. Karthik Muralidharan & Venkatesh Sundararaman, 2011. "Teacher Performance Pay: Experimental Evidence from India," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 39-77.
    19. Jeremy Atack & Fred Bateman & Michael Haines & Robert A. Margo, 2009. "Did Railroads Induce or Follow Economic Growth? Urbanization and Population Growth in the American Midwest, 1850-60," NBER Working Papers 14640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Torres Martinez, Antonio José, 2001. "Road maintenance policies in Sub-Saharan Africa: unsolved problems and acting strategies," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 257-265, October.
    21. de la Croix, David & Gobbi, Paula E., 2017. "Population density, fertility, and demographic convergence in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 13-24.
    22. Gilles Duranton & Matthew A. Turner, 2012. "Urban Growth and Transportation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1407-1440.
    23. Banerjee, Abhijit & Duflo, Esther & Qian, Nancy, 2020. "On the road: Access to transportation infrastructure and economic growth in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    24. Karthik Muralidharan & Venkatesh Sundararaman, 2015. "Editor's Choice The Aggregate Effect of School Choice: Evidence from a Two-Stage Experiment in India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1011-1066.
    25. Jacoby, Hanan C, 2000. "Access to Markets and the Benefits of Rural Roads," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(465), pages 713-737, July.
    26. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    27. Shahidur R. Khandker & Zaid Bakht & Gayatri B. Koolwal, 2009. "The Poverty Impact of Rural Roads: Evidence from Bangladesh," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(4), pages 685-722, July.
    28. Dimitris Batzilis & Taryn Dinkelman & Emily Oster & Rebecca Thornton & Deric Zanera, 2014. "New Cellular Networks in Malawi: Correlates of Service Rollout and Network Performance," NBER Chapters, in: African Successes, Volume III: Modernization and Development, pages 215-245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Root, Graham, 1997. "Population density and spatial differentials in child mortality in Zimbabwe," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 413-421, February.
    30. Dillon, Andrew & Sharma, Manohar & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2011. "Estimating the impact of rural investments in Nepal," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 250-258, April.
    31. Lippman, Sheri A. & Pulerwitz, Julie & Chinaglia, Magda & Hubbard, Alan & Reingold, Arthur & Díaz, Juan, 2007. "Mobility and its liminal context: Exploring sexual partnering among truck drivers crossing the Southern Brazilian border," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 65(12), pages 2464-2473, December.
    32. Céline Nauges & Jon Strand, 2017. "Water Hauling and Girls’ School Attendance: Some New Evidence from Ghana," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 66(1), pages 65-88, January.
    33. Piet Buys & Uwe Deichmann & David Wheeler, 2010. "Road Network Upgrading and Overland Trade Expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa-super- †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 19(3), pages 399-432, June.
    34. Yang Wang & Binzhen Wu, 2015. "Railways and the Local Economy: Evidence from Qingzang Railway," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 551-588.
    35. Gibson, John & Rozelle, Scott, 2003. "Poverty and Access to Roads in Papua New Guinea," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(1), pages 159-185, October.
    36. Gachassin, Marie & Najman, Boris & Raballand, Gael, 2010. "The impact of roads on poverty reduction : a case study of Cameroon," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5209, The World Bank.
    37. de Walque, Damien, 2006. "Who gets AIDS and how ? The determinants of HIV infection and sexual behaviors in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, and Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3844, The World Bank.
    38. Straub, Stephane & Vellutini, Charles & Warlters, Michael, 2008. "Infrastructure and economic growth in East Asia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4589, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bensch, Gunther & Gotz, Gunnar & Peters, Jörg, 2020. "Effects of rural electrification on employment: A comment on Dinkelman (2011)," Ruhr Economic Papers 840, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. DJEMAI, Elodie, 2018. "Roads and the spread of HIV in Africa," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 118-141.
    2. Elodie Djemai & Andrew E. Clark & Conchita D'Ambrosio, 2020. "Take the Highway? Paved Roads and Well-Being in Africa," Working Papers DT/2020/11, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    3. Claudia N. Berg & Uwe Deichmann & Yishen Liu & Harris Selod, 2017. "Transport Policies and Development," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(4), pages 465-480, April.
    4. Berger, Thor & Enflo, Kerstin, 2017. "Locomotives of local growth: The short- and long-term impact of railroads in Sweden," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 124-138.
    5. Berger, Thor, 2019. "Railroads and Rural Industrialization: evidence from a Historical Policy Experiment," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Bird, Julia & Straub, Stéphane, 2020. "The Brasília experiment: The heterogeneous impact of road access on spatial development in Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    7. Remi Jedwab & Adam Storeygard, 2019. "Economic and Political Factors in Infrastructure Investment: Evidence from Railroads and Roads in Africa 1960–2015," Economic History of Developing Regions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 156-208, May.
    8. Richard Bluhm & Axel Dreher & Andreas Fuchs & Bradley C. Parks & Austin M. Strange & Michael J. Tierney, 2020. "Connective Financing - Chinese Infrastructure Projects and the Diffusion of Economic Activity in Developing Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 8344, CESifo.
    9. Dongxiao Niu & Weizeng Sun & Siqi Zheng, 2020. "Travel costs, trade, and market segmentation: Evidence from China's high‐speed railway," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(6), pages 1799-1825, December.
    10. Bogart, Dan & You, Xuesheng & Alvarez-Palau, Eduard J. & Satchell, Max & Shaw-Taylor, Leigh, 2022. "Railways, divergence, and structural change in 19th century England and Wales," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    11. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Carballo, Jerónimo & Cusolito, Ana, 2017. "Roads, exports and employment: Evidence from a developing country," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 21-39.
    12. Aggarwal, Shilpa, 2018. "Do rural roads create pathways out of poverty? Evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 375-395.
    13. Konstantin Büchel & Stephan Kyburz, 2018. "Fast track to growth? Railway access, population growth and local displacement in 19th century Switzerland," CEP Discussion Papers dp1538, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    14. Gibbons, Stephen & Lyytikäinen, Teemu & Overman, Henry G. & Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa, 2019. "New road infrastructure: The effects on firms," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 35-50.
    15. Monica Beuran & Marie Gachassin & Gaël Raballand, 2015. "Are There Myths on Road Impact and Transport in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 33(5), pages 673-700, September.
    16. Stephan Fretz & Raphaël Parchet & Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2022. "Highways, Market Access and Spatial Sorting," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(643), pages 1011-1036.
    17. Büchel, Konstantin & Kyburz, Stephan, 2018. "Fast track to growth? Railway access, population growth and local displacement in 19th century Switzerland," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88689, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Wong, Ho Lun & Wang, Yu & Luo, Renfu & Zhang, Linxiu & Rozelle, Scott, 2017. "Local governance and the quality of local infrastructure: Evidence from village road projects in rural China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 119-132.
    19. Wu, Guiying Laura & Feng, Qu & Wang, Zhifeng, 2021. "A structural estimation of the return to infrastructure investment in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    20. Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2015. "The Impacts of Infrastructure in Development: A Selective Survey," ADBI Working Papers 511, Asian Development Bank Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    HIV/AIDS epidemic; infrastructure; geography; risk-taking; Sub-Saharan Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201716. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Loic Le Pezennec (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diallfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.