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Agricultural Policy and Long-Run Development: Evidence from Mussolini's Battle for Grain

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  • Mario F Carillo

Abstract

This article explores the long-run effect of agricultural policies on industrialisation and economic development. I analyse the differential effect of the Battle for Grain, implemented by the Italian Fascist regime to achieve self-sufficiency in wheat, on the development path across areas of Italy. Employing cross-sectional variation in land suitability for advanced wheat production technologies, along with time variation in their diffusion, I find that the policy had unintended positive effects on industrialisation and economic prosperity, which have persisted until today. Furthermore, I find that the complementarity between human capital and agricultural technology was a critical mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario F Carillo, 2021. "Agricultural Policy and Long-Run Development: Evidence from Mussolini's Battle for Grain," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(634), pages 566-597.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:131:y:2021:i:634:p:566-597.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ej/ueaa060
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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Carillo & Gemma Dipoppa & Shanker Satyanath, 2023. "Fascist ideology and migrant labor exploitation," Economics Working Papers 1865, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    2. Jappelli, Tullio & Carillo, Mario Francesco, 2020. "Pandemics and Local Economic Growth: Evidence from the Great Influenza in Italy," CEPR Discussion Papers 14849, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Gong, Binlei, 2020. "Measuring and Achieving World Agricultural Convergence," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304347, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Kammas, Pantelis & Sakalis, Argyris & Sarantides, Vassilis, 2021. "Pudding, plague and education: trade and human capital formation in an agrarian economy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112206, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Tang, Meng, 2025. "Industrialize with tax structure change: Agricultural tax abolition and local industrial growth in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    6. Mario F. Carillo, 2021. "Human Capital Distribution and the Transition from Stagnation to Growth," CSEF Working Papers 599, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    7. Lingran Yuan & Shurui Zhang & Shuo Wang & Zesen Qian & Binlei Gong, 2021. "World agricultural convergence," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 135-153, April.
    8. Nicola Fontana & Marco Manacorda & Gianluca Russo & Marco Tabellini, 2025. "Emigration and Long-Run Economic Development: Evidence from the Italian Mass Migration," Trinity Economics Papers tep1125, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    9. Torben Dall Schmidt & Peter Sandholt Jensen & Amber Naz, 2018. "Agricultural productivity and economic development: the contribution of clover to structural transformation in Denmark," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 387-426, December.
    10. Rafael Araujo & Vitor Possebom, 2025. "Potato Potahto in the FAO-GAEZ Productivity Measures? Nonclassical Measurement Error with Multiple Proxies," Papers 2502.12141, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
    11. Carillo, Mario F., 2024. "Human capital composition and long-run economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    12. Huang, Kaixing, 2024. "The Green Revolution, grain imports, and income divergence in the developing world," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    13. Huang, Kaixing, 2020. "Agricultural Productivity and Income Divergence: Evidence from the Green Revolution," MPRA Paper 108357, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Jun 2021.
    14. Richard Grabowski & Sharmistha Self, 2022. "Role of agricultural productivity growth in economic development: the neglected impact on institutional quality in Africa," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 681-700, September.
    15. Mario F. Carillo, 2022. "Fascistville: Mussolini’s new towns and the persistence of neo-fascism," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 527-567, December.
    16. Mario Carillo & Gemma Dipoppa & Shanker Satyanath, 2023. "Fascist Ideology and Migrant Labor Exploitation," Working Papers 1395, Barcelona School of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • N54 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Europe: 1913-
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O25 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Industrial Policy
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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