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Emigration and Long-Run Economic Development: Evidence from the Italian Mass Migration

Author

Listed:
  • Nicola Fontana

    (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin)

  • Marco Manacorda

    (School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary University of London)

  • Gianluca Russo

    (CUNEF University)

  • Marco Tabellini

    (Business, Government, and International Economy unit, Harvard Business School)

Abstract

In this paper, we study the long-run effects of emigration on economic development. We consider the case of historical mass migration from Italy between 1880 and 1920, when more than 10 million people left the country. We exploit variation in access to information about opportunities abroad to derive an instrument for outmigration at the municipality level. We find that areas with higher historical emigration are poorer, less educated, and less densely populated at the turn of the 21st century. These effects emerged early and persisted, as emigration led to sustained depopulation that, combined with declining fertility and lower human capital investment, constrained the structural transformation from agriculture to manufacturing and services.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicola Fontana & Marco Manacorda & Gianluca Russo & Marco Tabellini, 2025. "Emigration and Long-Run Economic Development: Evidence from the Italian Mass Migration," Trinity Economics Papers tep1125, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep1125
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    File URL: https://www.tcd.ie/Economics/TEP/2025/TEP1125.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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