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Fertility response to natural disasters : the case of three high mortality earthquakes


  • Finlay, Jocelyn E.


The event of a natural disaster, and being directly affected by it, brings a large shock to life-cycle outcomes. In addition to the replacement effects of higher fertility following a disaster that caused high mortality, a positive fertility response may be induced as children can be used to supplement household income. This paper analyzes three high mortality earthquakes: Gujarat, India, in 2001; North-West Frontier, Pakistan, in 2005; and Izmit, Turkey, in 1999. There is evidence of a positive fertility response to exposure to these large-scale natural disasters in addition to the response to child mortality. The results in this study are consistent with those of other studies that also find a positive fertility response following exposure to a disaster.

Suggested Citation

  • Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2009. "Fertility response to natural disasters : the case of three high mortality earthquakes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4883, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4883

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Lorenzo Guarcello & Fabrizia Mealli & Furio Rosati, 2010. "Household vulnerability and child labor: the effect of shocks, credit rationing, and insurance," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 169-198, January.
    2. Claus Portner, 2006. "Gone With the Wind? Hurricane Risk, Fertility and Education," Working Papers UWEC-2006-19-R, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008.
    3. Claus Chr. Pörtner, 2001. "Children as insurance," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 119-136.
    4. Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1988. "Risk, Implicit Contracts and the Family in Rural Areas of Low-income Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1148-1170, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Noy, Ilan & Karim, Azreen, 2013. "Poverty, inequality and natural disasters – A survey," Working Paper Series 2974, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Xu, Guo, 2011. "Long-run consequences of natural disasters: Evidence from Tangshan," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 82, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    3. Susmita Roy, 2010. "The impact of natural disasters on crime," Working Papers in Economics 10/57, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    4. repec:spr:jopoec:v:31:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s00148-017-0659-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Dang, Duc Anh, 2012. "On the sources of risk preferences in rural Vietnam," MPRA Paper 38058, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Lisa Cameron & Manisha Shah, 2015. "Risk-Taking Behavior in the Wake of Natural Disasters," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 484-515.
    7. Dang, Duc Anh, 2012. "On the sources of risk preferences in rural Vietnam," MPRA Paper 38738, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ager, Philipp & Hansen, Casper Worm & Lønstrup, Lars, 2018. "Shaking Up the Equilibrium: Natural Disasters, Economic Activity, and Immigration," Discussion Papers of Business and Economics 2/2018, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Business and Economics.
    9. Anh Duc Dang, 2012. "On the Sources of Risk Preferences in Rural Vietnam," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2012-593, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    10. Miao, Qing & Popp, David, 2014. "Necessity as the mother of invention: Innovative responses to natural disasters," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 280-295.
    11. Callen, Michael, 2015. "Catastrophes and time preference: Evidence from the Indian Ocean Earthquake," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 199-214.

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    Population Policies; Natural Disasters; Hazard Risk Management; Youth and Governance; Street Children;

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