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The Fertility Effect of Catastrophe: U.S. Hurricane Births

Author

Listed:
  • Evans, Richard W.

    () (University of Texas at Austin)

  • Hu, Yingyao

    () (Johns Hopkins University)

  • Zhao, Zhong

    () (Renmin University of China)

Abstract

For years, anecdotal evidence has suggested increased fertility rates resulting from catastrophic events in an area. In this paper, we measure this fertility effect using storm advisory data and fertility data for the Atlantic and Gulf Coast counties of the United States. We find that low-severity storm advisories are associated with a positive and significant fertility effect and that high-severity advisories have a significant negative fertility effect. As the type of advisory goes from least severe to most severe, the fertility effect of the specific advisory type decreases monotonically from positive to negative. We also find that most of the changes in fertility resulting from storm advisories come from couples who have had at least one child already. In addition to our short-term effect estimation, we also test the effects of storm advisories on long run fertility. Our results provide weak evidence at most that the highest severity storm advisories have a permanent negative fertility effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Evans, Richard W. & Hu, Yingyao & Zhao, Zhong, 2007. "The Fertility Effect of Catastrophe: U.S. Hurricane Births," IZA Discussion Papers 2975, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2975
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1984. "An Estimable Dynamic Stochastic Model of Fertility and Child Mortality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(5), pages 852-874, October.
    6. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Schultz, T Paul, 1985. "The Demand for and Supply of Births: Fertility and Its Life Cycle Consequences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 992-1015, December.
    7. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25.
    8. V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller, "undated". "The Economics of Family Planning," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 85-5, Chicago - Population Research Center.
    9. Ariel R. Belasen & Solomon W. Polachek, 2009. "How Disasters Affect Local Labor Markets: The Effects of Hurricanes in Florida," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(1).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009. "The Economics of Natural Disasters: A Survey," Research Department Publications 4649, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    2. Thiemo Fetzer & Oliver Pardo & Amar Shanghavi, 2013. "An Urban Legend?! Power Rationing, Fertility and its Effects on Mothers," CEP Discussion Papers dp1247, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Eric Strobl, 2011. "The Economic Growth Impact of Hurricanes: Evidence from U.S. Coastal Counties," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 575-589, May.
    4. Fetzer, Thiemo & Pardo, Oliver & Shanghavi, Amar, 2016. "More than an Urban Legend: The long-term socioeconomic effects of unplanned fertility shocks," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 284, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    5. Ariel R. Belasen & Solomon W. Polachek, 2013. "Natural disasters and migration," Chapters,in: International Handbook on the Economics of Migration, chapter 17, pages 309-330 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Mu, Jianhong & Chen, Yong, 2014. "Impacts of Natural Hazards on County-level Per Capita Income in the United States," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170202, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. repec:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:56:p:5722-5727 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Paul A. Raschky & Liang Choon Wang, 2017. "Reproductive behaviour at the end of the world: the effect of the Cuban Missile Crisis on U.S. fertility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(56), pages 5722-5727, December.
    9. Alfredo Burlando, 2014. "Power Outages, Power Externalities, and Baby Booms," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(4), pages 1477-1500, August.
    10. Ryan Brown, 2014. "The Intergenerational Impact of Terror: Does the 9/11 Tragedy Reverberate into the Outcomes of the Next Generation?," HiCN Working Papers 165, Households in Conflict Network.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    disaster; panel data models; family planning; fertility;

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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