IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Making the most of High Inflation

Listed author(s):
  • Wojciech Charemza

    ()

  • Svetlana Makarova

    ()

  • Imran Shah

    ()

The paper analyses inflationary real effects in situation where there are frequent episodes of high inflation. It is conjectured with the increase in high inflation, and when differences between the expected and output-neutral inflation become large, output stimulation through inflationary shocks is more effective than otherwise. It is shown that this conjecture is valid for most countries with high inflation episodes, where inflation is greater than 4.8% for at least 25% of quarterly observations. This leads to a simple policy prescription that anti-inflationary monetary decisions should be undertaken in periods where the expected inflation exceeds output-neutral.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/repec/lec/leecon/dp13-01.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Leicester in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 13/01.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Jan 2013
Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:13/01
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Department of Economics University of Leicester, University Road. Leicester. LE1 7RH. UK

Phone: +44 (0)116 252 2887
Fax: +44 (0)116 252 2908
Web page: http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/economics
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/economics/research/discussion-papers Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Steven Cook, 2009. "A re-examination of the stationarity of inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 1047-1053.
  2. Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393.
  3. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
  4. Òscar Jordà, 2009. "Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Impulse Responses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 629-647, August.
  5. Gans, Joshua S. & Leigh, Andrew, 2009. "Born on the first of July: An (un)natural experiment in birth timing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 246-263, February.
  6. Mikhail Golosov & Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2007. "Menu Costs and Phillips Curves," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 171-199.
  7. Virgiliu Midrigan, 2011. "Menu Costs, Multiproduct Firms, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 1139-1180, 07.
  8. Wojciech W Charemza & Svetlana Makarova, 2006. "Ex ante Dynamics of Real Effects of Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence for Poland and Russia, 2001–2003," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 458-479, September.
  9. Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-1144, September.
  10. A. Smith, Jeffrey & E. Todd, Petra, 2005. "Does matching overcome LaLonde's critique of nonexperimental estimators?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1-2), pages 305-353.
  11. Vaona, A. & Schiavo, S., 2007. "Nonparametric and semiparametric evidence on the long-run effects of inflation on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 452-458, March.
  12. Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1984. "An Estimable Dynamic Stochastic Model of Fertility and Child Mortality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(5), pages 852-874, October.
  13. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2011. "Asymmetric generalized impulse responses and variance decompositions with an application," MPRA Paper 31700, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2010. "The Role Of Labor And Marriage Markets, Preference Heterogeneity, And The Welfare System In The Life Cycle Decisions Of Black, Hispanic, And White Women," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(3), pages 851-892, 08.
  15. Bick, Alexander, 2010. "Threshold effects of inflation on economic growth in developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 126-129, August.
  16. Syed Basher & Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Is there really a unit root in the inflation rate? More evidence from panel data models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 161-164.
  17. Stanley Fischer & Franco Modigliani, 1978. "Towards an understanding of the real effects and costs of inflation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 114(4), pages 810-833, December.
  18. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
  19. Stephanie Kremer & Alexander Bick & Dieter Nautz, 2013. "Inflation and growth: new evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 861-878, April.
  20. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  21. Cristino R. Arroyo & Junsen Zhang, 1997. "Dynamic microeconomic models of fertility choice: A survey," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 23-65.
  22. Christopoulos, Dimitris K. & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2004. "Financial development and economic growth: evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 55-74, February.
  23. Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Salles, Joao M., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 312-318, February.
  24. Hotz, V Joseph & Miller, Robert A, 1988. "An Empirical Analysis of Life Cycle Fertility and Female Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 91-118, January.
  25. Brito, Ricardo D. & Bystedt, Brianne, 2010. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: Panel evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 198-210, March.
  26. Michael Sarel, 1995. "Nonlinear Effects of Inflationon Economic Growth," IMF Working Papers 95/56, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Christine Gartner & Gert Wehinger, 1998. "Core Inflation in Selected European Union Countries," Working Papers 33, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  28. McFadden, Daniel, 1989. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September.
  29. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
  30. Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin B., 2006. "On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 478-500, August.
  31. Wojciech Charemza & Daniela Hristova & Peter Burridge, 2005. "Is inflation stationary?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 901-903.
  32. Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris, 2010. "The effect of inflation on growth," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 18(4), pages 697-714, October.
  33. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2004. "Multivariate tests for autocorrelation in the stable and unstable VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 661-683, July.
  34. Rousseau, Peter L. & Wachtel, Paul, 2002. "Inflation thresholds and the finance-growth nexus," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 777-793, November.
  35. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2008. "Revisiting the uncertain unit root in GDP and CPI: Testing for non-linear trend reversion," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 221-223, August.
  36. Bull, Clive & Frydman, Roman, 1983. "The Derivation and Interpretation of the Lucas Supply Function," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(1), pages 82-95, February.
  37. Brock, William A, 1974. "Money and Growth: The Case of Long Run Perfect Foresight," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(3), pages 750-777, October.
  38. Marco Francesconi, 2002. "A Joint Dynamic Model of Fertility and Work of Married Women," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(2), pages 336-380, Part.
  39. By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-1.
  40. Kevin Milligan, 2005. "Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 539-555, August.
  41. M. Ruth & K. Donaghy & P. Kirshen, 2006. "Introduction," Chapters,in: Regional Climate Change and Variability, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  42. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2009. "Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 118-123, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:13/01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mrs. Alexandra Mazzuoccolo)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.