IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/labeco/v30y2014icp265-281.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the impact of the maternity capital policy in Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Slonimczyk, Fabián
  • Yurko, Anna

Abstract

With declining population and fertility rates below replacement levels, Russia is currently facing a demographic crisis. Starting in 2007, the federal government has pursued an ambitious pro-natalist policy. Women who give birth to at least two children are entitled to “maternity capital” assistance ($11,000). In this paper we estimate a structural dynamic programming model of fertility and labor force participation in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the policy. We find that the program increased long-run fertility by about 0.15 children per woman.

Suggested Citation

  • Slonimczyk, Fabián & Yurko, Anna, 2014. "Assessing the impact of the maternity capital policy in Russia," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 265-281.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:30:y:2014:i:c:p:265-281
    DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2014.03.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927537114000232
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.labeco.2014.03.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hotz, V Joseph & Miller, Robert A, 1988. "An Empirical Analysis of Life Cycle Fertility and Female Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 91-118, January.
    2. McFadden, Daniel, 1989. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September.
    3. Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2010. "The Role Of Labor And Marriage Markets, Preference Heterogeneity, And The Welfare System In The Life Cycle Decisions Of Black, Hispanic, And White Women," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(3), pages 851-892, August.
    4. Marco Francesconi, 2002. "A Joint Dynamic Model of Fertility and Work of Married Women," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(2), pages 336-380, Part.
    5. Alma Cohen & Rajeev Dehejia & Dmitri Romanov, 2013. "Financial Incentives and Fertility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Cristino R. Arroyo & Junsen Zhang, 1997. "Dynamic microeconomic models of fertility choice: A survey," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 23-65.
    7. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    8. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kevin Milligan, 2005. "Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 539-555, August.
    10. Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2007. "Exploring The Usefulness Of A Nonrandom Holdout Sample For Model Validation: Welfare Effects On Female Behavior," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1351-1378, November.
    11. Daniel Chen, 2011. "Can countries reverse fertility decline? Evidence from France’s marriage and baby bonuses, 1929–1981," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 18(3), pages 253-272, June.
    12. Slonimczyk, Fabian & Yurko, Anna, 2013. "Assessing the Impact of the Maternity Capital Policy in Russia Using a Dynamic Model of Fertility and Employment," IZA Discussion Papers 7705, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Gans, Joshua S. & Leigh, Andrew, 2009. "Born on the first of July: An (un)natural experiment in birth timing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 246-263, February.
    14. Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1984. "An Estimable Dynamic Stochastic Model of Fertility and Child Mortality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(5), pages 852-874, October.
    15. Keane, Michael P. & Todd, Petra E. & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 2011. "The Structural Estimation of Behavioral Models: Discrete Choice Dynamic Programming Methods and Applications," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 4, pages 331-461, Elsevier.
    16. Michael Alexeev & Shlomo Weber, 2013. "Russian economy, the," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dmitriy Gorskiy, 2023. "The maternity capital and probability of second birth in Russia: Explaining the last 10 Years' fertility patterns," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2023 30, Stata Users Group.
    2. Sorvachev, Ilia & Yakovlev, Evgeny, 2020. "Short- and Long-Run Effects of a Sizable Child Subsidy: Evidence from Russia," IZA Discussion Papers 13019, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Francesconi, Marco & Slonimczyk, Fabian & Yurko, Anna, 2017. "Moving On Up for High School Graduates in Russia: The Consequences of the Uni ed State Exam Reform," CEPR Discussion Papers 11996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Alex Proshin, 2020. "Impact of Child Subsidies on Child Health, Well-being and Parental Investment in Human Capital: Evidence from Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey 2011-2017," PSE Working Papers halshs-02652268, HAL.
    5. Fabián Slonimczyk & Vladimir Gimpelson, 2015. "Informality and mobility," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 23(2), pages 299-341, April.
    6. Ekaterina Aleksandrova & Venera Bagranova & Christopher J Gerry, 2021. "The effect of health shocks on labour market outcomes in Russia [Ageing and unused capacity in Europe: is there an early retirement trap?]," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(6), pages 1319-1336.
    7. Lara Lebedinski & Cristiano Perugini & Marko Vladisavljević, 2023. "Child penalty in Russia: evidence from an event study," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 173-215, March.
    8. Francesconi, Marco & Slonimczyk, Fabián & Yurko, Anna, 2019. "Democratizing access to higher education in Russia: The consequences of the unified state exam reform," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 56-82.
    9. Cheng-Tao Tang & Chun Yee Wong & Ayush Batzorig, 2022. "Do Financial Incentives on High Parity Birth Affect Fertility? Evidence from the Order of Glorious Mother in Mongolia," Working Papers EMS_2022_01, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    10. Maleva, Tatiana M. (Маллева, Татьяна) & Makarentseva, Alla O. (Макаренцева, Алла) & Tretyakova, Ekaterina A. (Третьякова, Екатерина), 2017. "Pronatalist Demographic Policy in the Eyes of the Population: Ten Years Later [Пронаталистская Демографическая Политика Глазами Населения: Десять Лет Спустя]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 6, pages 124-147, December.
    11. Alex Proshin, 2020. "Impact of Child Subsidies on Child Health, Well-being and Parental Investment in Human Capital: Evidence from Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey 2011-2017," Working Papers halshs-02652268, HAL.
    12. Simola, Heli, 2021. "Long-term challenges to Russian economic policy," BOFIT Policy Briefs 11/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    13. Alex Proshin, 2023. "Impact of Child Subsidies on Child Health, Well-Being, and Investment in Child Human Capital: Evidence from Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey 2010–2017," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-92, December.
    14. Holger Stichnoth & Raphael Abiry & Karsten Reuss, 2015. "Completed fertility effects of family policy measures: evidence from a life-cycle model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1726-1733.
    15. Ilia Sorvachev & Evgeny Yakovlev, 2019. "Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Sizable Child Subsidy: Evidence from Russia," Working Papers w0254, New Economic School (NES).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wojciech Charemza & Svetlana Makarova & Imran Shah, 2015. "Making the most of high inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3723-3739, July.
    2. Slonimczyk, Fabian & Yurko, Anna, 2013. "Assessing the Impact of the Maternity Capital Policy in Russia Using a Dynamic Model of Fertility and Employment," IZA Discussion Papers 7705, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Jérôme Adda & Christian Dustmann & Katrien Stevens, 2017. "The Career Costs of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 293-337.
    4. Juan Pantano & Qi Li, 2013. "The Demographic Consequences of Gender Selection Technology," 2013 Meeting Papers 1161, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Zvi Eckstein & Osnat Lifshitz, 2011. "Dynamic Female Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(6), pages 1675-1726, November.
    6. Qi Li & Juan Pantano, 2023. "The demographic consequences of sex‐selection technology," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 309-347, January.
    7. Keane, Michael P. & Todd, Petra E. & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 2011. "The Structural Estimation of Behavioral Models: Discrete Choice Dynamic Programming Methods and Applications," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 4, pages 331-461, Elsevier.
    8. Robert M. Sauer & Christopher Taber, 2021. "Understanding women's wage growth using indirect inference with importance sampling," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 453-473, June.
    9. David Canning & Declan French & Michael Moore, 2016. "The Economics of Fertility Timing: An Euler Equation Approach," CHaRMS Working Papers 16-03, Centre for HeAlth Research at the Management School (CHaRMS).
    10. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias & Costas Meghir & Jonathan Shaw, 2016. "Female Labor Supply, Human Capital, and Welfare Reform," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1705-1753, September.
    11. Malte Sandner & Frederik Wiynck, 2023. "The Fertility Response to Cutting Child-Related Welfare Benefits," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(2), pages 1-29, April.
    12. Diego Amador, 2017. "The Consequences of Abortion and Contraception Policies on Young Women’s Reproductive Choices, Schooling and Labor Supply," Documentos CEDE 15635, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    13. Azmat, Ghazala & González, Libertad, 2010. "Targeting fertility and female participation through the income tax," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 487-502, June.
    14. Elmallakh, Nelly, 2021. "Fertility, Family Policy, and Labor Supply: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from France," GLO Discussion Paper Series 984, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    15. Maria Rosaria Marino & Marzia Romanelli & Martino Tasso, 2016. "Women at work: the impact of welfare and fiscal policies in a dynamic labor supply model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1084, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Vera Celia P., 2019. "A Structural Approach to Assessing Retention Policies in Public Schools," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 1-26, July.
    17. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt & Michèle Tertilt, 2010. "Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 43-100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Borra, Cristina & Rivera Garrido, Noelia, 2019. "Fertility Implications of Policy Granting Legal Status Based on Offspring's Nationality," IZA Discussion Papers 12641, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Natalie Malak & Md Mahbubur Rahman & Terry A. Yip, 2019. "Baby bonus, anyone? Examining heterogeneous responses to a pro-natalist policy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1205-1246, October.
    20. Katrine M. Jakobsen & Thomas H. Jørgensen & Hamish Low, 2022. "Fertility and Family Labor Supply," CEBI working paper series 22-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Female labor supply; Structural estimation; Russia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:30:y:2014:i:c:p:265-281. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/labeco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.