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Short- and Long-Run Effects of a Sizable Child Subsidy: Evidence from Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Sorvachev, Ilia

    (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

  • Yakovlev, Evgeny

    (New Economic School, Moscow)

Abstract

This paper utilizes a large-scale natural experiment aimed at increasing fertility in Russia. Motivated by a decade-long decrease in fertility and population, the Russian government introduced a sequence of sizable child subsidies (called Maternity Capitals) in 2007 and 2012. We find that the Maternity Capital resulted in a significant increase in fertility both in the short run and in the long run, and has already resulted in an increase in completed fertility for a large cohort of Russian women. The subsidy is conditional and can be used mainly to buy housing. We find that fertility grew faster in regions with a shortage of housing and with a higher ratio of subsidy to housing prices. We also find that the subsidy has a substantial general equilibrium effect. It affected the housing market and family stability. Finally, we show that this government intervention comes at a substantial cost: the government's willingness to pay for an additional birth induced by the program equals approximately 50,000 dollars.

Suggested Citation

  • Sorvachev, Ilia & Yakovlev, Evgeny, 2020. "Short- and Long-Run Effects of a Sizable Child Subsidy: Evidence from Russia," IZA Discussion Papers 13019, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Lara Lebedinski & Cristiano Perugini & Marko Vladisavljević, 2023. "Child penalty in Russia: evidence from an event study," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 173-215, March.
    4. Ekaterina Aleksandrova & Venera Bagranova & Christopher J Gerry, 2021. "The effect of health shocks on labour market outcomes in Russia [Ageing and unused capacity in Europe: is there an early retirement trap?]," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1319-1336.
    5. Simola, Heli, 2021. "Long-term challenges to Russian economic policy," BOFIT Policy Briefs 11/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    6. Claudia Hupkau & Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela, 2022. "Work and children in Spain: challenges and opportunities for equality between men and women," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 243-268, May.

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • H1 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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