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Private Incentives and Social Interactions: Fertility Puzzles in Israel

Author

Listed:
  • Charles F. Manski

    (Northwestern University,)

  • Joram Mayshar

    (Hebrew University of Jerusalem,)

Abstract

This paper explores how private and social incentives for fertility may have combined to produce the complex fertility pattern observed in Israel in the past half-century. Fertility has declined within some ethnic-religious groups, moderately increased in others, and parts of the ultra-Orthodox Jewish population have experienced a reverse fertility transition, in which childbearing has increased rapidly and substantially. We present a theoretical analysis of the social dynamics of fertility that shows how private preferences, preferences for conformity to social norms in childbearing, and piecewise linear child allowances could have combined to yield such a complex fertility pattern. We then explain the identification problem that makes it so difficult to infer the actual Israeli fertility process from data on completed fertility. (JEL:J13, Z13, H53) Copyright (c) 2003 The European Economic Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles F. Manski & Joram Mayshar, 2003. "Private Incentives and Social Interactions: Fertility Puzzles in Israel," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 181-211, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:jeurec:v:1:y:2003:i:1:p:181-211
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Federico Ciliberto & Amalia R. Miller & Helena Skyt Nielsen & Marianne Simonsen, 2016. "Playing The Fertility Game At Work: An Equilibrium Model Of Peer Effects," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 827-856, August.
    2. Nicoletta Balbo & Nicola Barban & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Friend and peer effects on entry into marriage and parenthood: A multiprocess approach," Working Papers 056, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
    3. Moti Michaeli & Daniel Spiro, "undated". "The dynamics of revolutions," Working Papers WP2017/8, University of Haifa, Department of Economics.
    4. Evgenia Bystrov, 2012. "The Second Demographic Transition in Israel: One for All?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(10), pages 261-298, August.
    5. Sagit Bar-Gill & Chaim Fershtman, 2016. "Integration policy: Cultural transmission with endogenous fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 105-133, January.
    6. Chen, Hung-Ju, 2015. "Child allowances, educational subsidies and occupational choice," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 327-342.
    7. Thorsten Janus, 2013. "The political economy of fertility," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 493-505, June.
    8. Michaeli, Moti & Spiro, Daniel, 2013. "The Distribution of Individual Conformity under Social Pressure across Societies," Memorandum 12/2014, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    9. Lawrence E. Blume & William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Rajshri Jayaraman, 2015. "Linear Social Interactions Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(2), pages 444-496.
    10. Alma Cohen & Rajeev Dehejia & Dmitri Romanov, 2007. "Do Financial Incentives Affect Fertility?," NBER Working Papers 13700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Merrouche, Ouarda, 2007. "The Long Term Impact of French Settlement on Education in Algeria," Working Paper Series 2007:2, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    12. Karin Monstad & Carol Propper & Kjell G. Salvanes, 2011. "Is teenage motherhood contagious? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 11/262, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    13. Assaf Razin, 2017. "Israel's High Fertility Rate and Anemic Skill Acquisition," CESifo Working Paper Series 6455, CESifo Group Munich.
    14. Iyer, S. & Weeks, M., 2009. "Social Interactions, Ethnicity and Fertility in Kenya," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0903, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    15. Jona Schellekens, 2009. "Family allowances and fertility: Socioeconomic differences," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 46(3), pages 451-468, August.
    16. Avraham Ebenstein & Moshe Hazan & Avi Simhon, 2016. "Changing the Cost of Children and Fertility: Evidence from the Israeli Kibbutz," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(597), pages 2038-2063, November.
    17. Chen, Hung-Ju, 2013. "Child Allowances, Educational Subsidies and Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 51279, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. repec:eee:jetheo:v:174:y:2018:i:c:p:300-323 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Sagit Bar-Gill & Chaim Fershtman, 2016. "Integration policy: Cultural transmission with endogenous fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 105-133, January.
    20. Abhishek Kumar & Valeria Bordone & Raya Muttarak, 2016. "Like Mother(-in-Law) Like Daughter? Influence of the Older Generation’s Fertility Behaviours on Women’s Desired Family Size in Bihar, India," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 629-660, December.
    21. Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins, 2015. "Malthus to modernity: wealth, status, and fertility in England, 1500–1879," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 3-29, January.
    22. Asphjell, Magne K. & Hensvik, Lena & Nilsson, J. Peter, 2013. "Businesses, Buddies, and Babies: Fertility and Social Interactions at Work," Working Paper Series, Center for Labor Studies 2013:8, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    23. Joshua Angrist & Victor Lavy & Analia Schlosser, 2010. "Multiple Experiments for the Causal Link between the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(4), pages 773-824, October.
    24. Michaeli, Moti & Spiro, Daniel, 2015. "Norm conformity across societies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 51-65.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs

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