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The Effect of Cash Transfers on Fertility: Evidence from Argentina

Author

Listed:
  • Santiago Garganta

    () (Universidad Nacional de La Plata and CONICET)

  • Leonardo Gasparini

    (Universidad Nacional de La Plata and CONICET)

  • Mariana Marchionni

    (Universidad Nacional de La Plata and CONICET)

  • Mariano Tappatá

    (Georgetown University)

Abstract

Abstract In 2009 Argentina introduced a large poverty-alleviation program (AUH) that provides monthly cash transfers per child to households without workers in the formal sector. In this paper we study the potential unintended effect of this program on fertility. We apply a difference-in-difference strategy comparing the probability of having a new child among eligible and ineligible mothers both before and after the program inception. The intention to treat estimations suggest a significant positive impact on fertility in households with at least one child (around 2 percentage points), but no significant effect on childless households. Given the short time window since the implementation of the AUH, we are unable to identify whether this positive effect reflects changes in the timing of births or in the equilibrium number of children.

Suggested Citation

  • Santiago Garganta & Leonardo Gasparini & Mariana Marchionni & Mariano Tappatá, 2017. "The Effect of Cash Transfers on Fertility: Evidence from Argentina," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(1), pages 1-24, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:36:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11113-016-9417-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-016-9417-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Joanna Tyrowicz & Magdalena Smyk & Lucas van der Velde, 2018. "A cautionary note on the reliability of the online survey data – the case of Wage Indicator," IAAEU Discussion Papers 201805, Institute of Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU).
    2. Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz & Magda Malec, 2018. "Evaluating welfare and economic effects of raised fertility," GRAPE Working Papers 25, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    3. María Edo & Mariana Marchionni, 2018. "Fading Out Effect or Long Lasting Nudge? The impact of a Conditional Cash Transfer Program Beyond Starting the School Year in Argentina," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0225, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    4. repec:idb:idbbks:9152 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Cash transfers; Social protection; AUH; Argentina;

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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