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Evaluating the impact of conditional cash transfer programs on fertility: the case of the Red de Protección Social in Nicaragua

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  • Jessica Todd

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  • Paul Winters
  • Guy Stecklov

Abstract

Evaluating the impact of poverty-reduction programs on fertility is complicated given that changes in incentives to have children take time to be incorporated into decision making and evaluation periods are usually quite brief. We explore the use of birth spacing as a short-run indicator of the impact of poverty-reduction programs on fertility. The data come from a Nicaraguan conditional cash transfer program that offers incentives for poor households to invest in children’s health, nutrition, and education. We estimate a stratified Cox proportional hazard model and find that the program decreased the hazard of a birth, indicating an increase in birth spacing. Copyright US Government 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Jessica Todd & Paul Winters & Guy Stecklov, 2012. "Evaluating the impact of conditional cash transfer programs on fertility: the case of the Red de Protección Social in Nicaragua," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 267-290, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:25:y:2012:i:1:p:267-290
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-010-0337-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Armando Barrientos & Alma Kudebayeva, 2015. "Social transfers and women’s labour supply in Kyrgyzstan," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 21515, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    2. repec:bla:devpol:v:35:y:2017:i:5:p:621-643 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:66:n:4:a:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. María Alzúa & Guillermo Cruces & Laura Ripani, 2013. "Welfare programs and labor supply in developing countries: experimental evidence from Latin America," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1255-1284, October.
    5. Tia Palermo & Sudhanshu Handa & Amber Peterman & Leah Prencipe & David Seidenfeld, 2016. "Unconditional government social cash transfer in Africa does not increase fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(4), pages 1083-1111, October.
    6. M. Caridad Araujo & Mariano Bosch & Norbert Schady, 2017. "Can Cash Transfers Help Households Escape an Intergenerational Poverty Trap?," NBER Chapters,in: The Economics of Poverty Traps, pages 357-382 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Santiago Garganta & Leonardo Gasparini & Mariana Marchionni & Mariano Tappatá, 2017. "The Effect of Cash Transfers on Fertility: Evidence from Argentina," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(1), pages 1-24, February.
    8. repec:eee:econom:v:204:y:2018:i:1:p:33-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Chowdury, Sadia & Vergeer, Petra & Schmidt, Harald & Barroy, Helene & Bishai, David & Halpern, Scott, 2013. "Economics and Ethics of Results-Based Financing for Family Planning: Evidence and Policy Implications," Health, Nutrition and Population (HNP) Discussion Paper Series 84663, The World Bank.
    10. Independent Evaluation Group, 2014. "Social Safety Nets and Gender : Learning from Impact Evaluations and World Bank Projects," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 21365, December.
    11. repec:eee:deveco:v:134:y:2018:i:c:p:191-208 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Hoddinott, John F. & Mekasha, Tseday J., 2017. "Social protection, household size and its determinants: Evidence from Ethiopia," ESSP working papers 107, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Conditional cash transfer programs; Hazard model; J13; C41; H53;

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs

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