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A re-examination of the stationarity of inflation


  • Steven Cook

    (School of Business and Economics, Swansea University, UK)


In a recent examination of the integrated nature of inflation, Culver and Papell (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1997) applied a range of unit root and stationarity tests to data from a panel of 13 OECD economies. The results obtained were mixed. While little evidence of stationarity was detected using univariate methods, rejection of the unit root hypothesis was observed under panel data unit root testing, although rejection was found to be sensitive to cross-sectional variation. In this note the results of Culver and Papell are reconsidered in light of conditional heteroskedasticity detected in the inflation rate series. Using a more appropriate univariate testing procedure combining local-to-unity detrending and joint maximum likelihood estimation of a unit root testing equation and GARCH process, strong evidence in favour of stationarity is detected in 11 of 13 economies examined. In contrast to the univariate findings of Culver and Papell, the results obtained herein using an alternative univariate procedure provide evidence in support of their I(0) inference drawn using panel methods. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Steven Cook, 2009. "A re-examination of the stationarity of inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 1047-1053.
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:24:y:2009:i:6:p:1047-1053
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.1098

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Shah, Imran H. & Corrick, Ian & Saboor, Abdul, 2016. "How Should Central Banks Respond to Non-neutral Inflation Expectations," Department of Economics Working Papers 58123, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    2. Wojciech Charemza & Svetlana Makarova & Imran Shah, 2015. "Making the most of high inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3723-3739, July.
    3. Wojciech Charemza & Svetlana Makarova & Imran Shah, 2013. "Frequent episoded of high inflation and real effects," EcoMod2013 5478, EcoMod.
    4. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2017. "The stationarity of inflation in Croatia: anti-inflation stabilization program and the change in persistence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 45-58, February.
    5. repec:spr:jknowl:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s13132-015-0265-4 is not listed on IDEAS

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