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The robustness of modified unit root tests in the presence of GARCH

  • Steven Cook
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    The research of Kim and Schmidt (J. Economet., 1993, 59, 287-300) is extended to examine the properties of modified Dickey-Fuller unit root tests in the presence of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH). Using Monte Carlo simulation, the properties of the tests are examined for a range of GARCH processes over alternative sample sizes. Oversizing is observed for all tests, with the extent of size distortion driven by the volatility, rather than the persistence, of the underlying GARCH process. While the original Dickey-Fuller test is found to exhibit greater size distortion than the modified tests, the modified tests are found to be substantially oversized when the GARCH process exhibits a high degree of volatility, even for large samples.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14697680600702045
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    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Quantitative Finance.

    Volume (Year): 6 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 359-363

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:6:y:2006:i:4:p:359-363
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    1. Hamori, Shigeyuki & Tokihisa, Akira, 1997. "Testing for a unit root in the presence of a variance shift1," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 245-253, December.
    2. Li, W K & Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. " Recent Theoretical Results for Time Series Models with GARCH Errors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 245-69, July.
    3. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    4. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-153273 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Drost, F.C. & Nijman, T.E., 1990. "Temporal aggregation of GARCH processes," Discussion Paper 1990-66, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    7. repec:dgr:uvatin:20010077 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Kim, Kiwhan & Schmidt, Peter, 1993. "Unit root tests with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 287-300, October.
    9. Stephen Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Newbold, 2005. "Examination of Some More Powerful Modifications of the Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 355-369, 05.
    10. Leybourne, S J, 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots Using Forward and Reverse Dickey-Fuller Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 559-71, November.
    11. Seo, Byeongseon, 1999. "Distribution theory for unit root tests with conditional heteroskedasticity1," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 113-144, July.
    12. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Kim, Tae-Hwan & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 2002. "Unit root tests with a break in innovation variance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 365-387, August.
    14. Drost, F.C. & Nijman, T.E., 1993. "Temporal aggregation of GARCH processes," Other publications TiSEM 0642fb61-c7f4-4281-b484-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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