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The finite-sample performance of robust unit root tests

  • Kai Carstensen


This paper investigates the relative small sample performance of several robust unit root tests by means of a simulation study. It is confirmed that the traditional least-squares based Dickey-Fuller test has substantially lower power than several robust alternatives if the error distribution is fat-tailed while its power gain is small at the normal model. Particularly good results are achieved by a quasi-maximum likelihood test. However, all robust tests under consideration exhibit severe size distortions if the disturbances follow a skewed distribution. Moreover, under additive outliers, robust tests fail to produce stable sizes and good power properties. Consequently, the value of using robust unit root tests depends heavily of the type of nonnormality at hand.

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Statistical Papers.

Volume (Year): 44 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 469-482

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Handle: RePEc:spr:stpapr:v:44:y:2003:i:4:p:469-482
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  1. Lucas, Andre, 1995. "An outlier robust unit root test with an application to the extended Nelson-Plosser data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 153-173.
  2. Rothenberg, Thomas J. & Stock, James H., 1997. "Inference in a nearly integrated autoregressive model with nonnormal innovations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 269-286, October.
  3. Lucas, André, 1995. "Unit Root Tests Based on M Estimators," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 331-346, February.
  4. Shin, Dong Wan & So, Beong Soo, 1999. "Unit Root Tests Based On Adaptive Maximum Likelihood Estimation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(01), pages 1-23, February.
  5. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  6. Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-78, October.
  7. G. William Schwert, 1988. "Tests For Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Abadir, Karim M. & Lucas, Andre, 2000. "Quantiles for t-statistics based on M-estimators of unit roots," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 131-137, May.
  9. Hoek, Henk & Lucas, Andre & van Dijk, Herman K., 1995. "Classical and Bayesian aspects of robust unit root inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 27-59, September.
  10. Seo, Byeongseon, 1999. "Distribution theory for unit root tests with conditional heteroskedasticity1," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 113-144, July.
  11. Kim, Kiwhan & Schmidt, Peter, 1993. "Unit root tests with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 287-300, October.
  12. Herce, Miguel A., 1996. "Asymptotic Theory of LAD Estimation in a Unit Root Process with Finite Variance Errors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(01), pages 129-153, March.
  13. Galbraith, JohnW. & Zinde-Walsh, Victoria, 1999. "On the distributions of Augmented Dickey-Fuller statistics in processes with moving average components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 25-47, November.
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