IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Modelling and forecasting short-term interest rate volatility: A semiparametric approach

  • Hou, Ai Jun
  • Suardi, Sandy

This paper employs a semiparametric procedure to estimate the diffusion process of short-term interest rates. The Monte Carlo study shows that the semiparametric approach produces more accurate volatility estimates than models that accommodate asymmetry, level effect and serial dependence in the conditional variance. Moreover, the semiparametric approach yields robust volatility estimates even if the short rate drift function and the underlying innovation distribution are misspecified. Empirical investigation with the U.S. three-month Treasury bill rates suggests that the semiparametric procedure produces superior in-sample and out-of-sample forecast of short rate changes volatility compared with the widely used single-factor diffusion models. This forecast improvement has implications for pricing interest rate derivatives.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927539811000247
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

Volume (Year): 18 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 692-710

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:18:y:2011:i:4:p:692-710
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Czellar, Veronika & Karolyi, G. Andrew & Ronchetti, Elvezio, 2005. "Indirect Robust Estimation of the Short-term Interest Rate Process," Working Paper Series 2005-4, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  2. Bali, Turan G. & Wu, Liuren, 2006. "A comprehensive analysis of the short-term interest-rate dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1269-1290, April.
  3. Conley, Timothy G, et al, 1997. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Subordinated Diffusions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 525-77.
  4. Bali, Turan G., 2003. "Modeling the stochastic behavior of short-term interest rates: Pricing implications for discount bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 201-228, February.
  5. Jiang, George J. & Knight, John L., 1997. "A Nonparametric Approach to the Estimation of Diffusion Processes, With an Application to a Short-Term Interest Rate Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(05), pages 615-645, October.
  6. Stanton, Richard, 1997. " A Nonparametric Model of Term Structure Dynamics and the Market Price of Interest Rate Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1973-2002, December.
  7. Buhlmann, Peter & McNeil, Alexander J., 2002. "An algorithm for nonparametric GARCH modelling," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 665-683, October.
  8. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
  9. Brenner, Robin J. & Harjes, Richard H. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1996. "Another Look at Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 85-107, March.
  10. Kim, Kiwhan & Schmidt, Peter, 1993. "Unit root tests with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 287-300, October.
  11. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Panayiotis Theodossiou, 1998. "Financial Data and the Skewed Generalized T Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(12-Part-1), pages 1650-1661, December.
  13. David A. Chapman & Neil D. Pearson, 2000. "Is the Short Rate Drift Actually Nonlinear?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 355-388, 02.
  14. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  15. Dell'Aquila, Rosario & Ronchetti, Elvezio & Trojani, Fabio, 2003. "Robust GMM analysis of models for the short rate process," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 373-397, May.
  16. Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," RCER Working Papers 322, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  17. repec:hal:journl:hal-00463251 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
  19. Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 1995. "Nonparametric Pricing of Interest Rate Derivative Securities," NBER Working Papers 5345, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Marsh, Terry A & Rosenfeld, Eric R, 1983. " Stochastic Processes for Interest Rates and Equilibrium Bond Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(2), pages 635-46, May.
  21. Seo, Byeongseon, 1999. "Distribution theory for unit root tests with conditional heteroskedasticity1," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 113-144, July.
  22. Christopher S. Jones, 2003. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion in the Short-Term Interest Rate," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 793-843, July.
  23. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
  24. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
  25. Pritsker, Matt, 1998. "Nonparametric Density Estimation and Tests of Continuous Time Interest Rate Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 449-87.
  26. Nowman, K. Ben & Sorwar, Ghulam, 2005. "Derivative prices from interest rate models: results for Canada, Hong Kong, and United States," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 428-438.
  27. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
  28. Lisa N. Galaif, 1993. "Index amortizing rate swaps," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Win, pages 63-70.
  29. Jiang, George J., 1998. "Nonparametric Modeling of U.S. Interest Rate Term Structure Dynamics and Implications on the Prices of Derivative Securities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(04), pages 465-497, December.
  30. Bali, Turan G., 2000. "Testing the Empirical Performance of Stochastic Volatility Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(02), pages 191-215, June.
  31. Cook, Steven, 2008. "Joint maximum likelihood estimation of unit root testing equations and GARCH processes: Some finite-sample issues," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 109-116.
  32. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:18:y:2011:i:4:p:692-710. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.