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Revisiting the uncertain unit root in GDP and CPI: Testing for non-linear trend reversion

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  • Beechey, Meredith
  • Österholm, Pär

Abstract

We test for the presence of a unit root in U.S. GDP and CPI, allowing for non-linear trend reversion under the alternative hypothesis. In contrast to most previous results, we find evidence in favour of trend stationarity for both variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2008. "Revisiting the uncertain unit root in GDP and CPI: Testing for non-linear trend reversion," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 221-223, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:100:y:2008:i:2:p:221-223
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    5. Papell, David H & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2004. "The Uncertain Unit Root in U.S. Real GDP: Evidence with Restricted and Unrestricted Structural Change," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 423-427, June.
    6. Diebold, Francis X & Senhadji, Abdelhak S, 1996. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1291-1298, December.
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    8. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
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    10. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    11. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Cuestas & Dean Garratt, 2011. "Is real GDP per capita a stationary process? Smooth transitions, nonlinear trends and unit root testing," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 555-563, December.
    2. Shelley, Gary L. & Wallace, Frederick H., 2011. "Further evidence regarding nonlinear trend reversion of real GDP and the CPI," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 56-59, July.
    3. Kitov, Ivan, 2012. "Why price inflation in developed countries is systematically underestimated," MPRA Paper 39059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Wojciech Charemza & Svetlana Makarova & Imran Shah, 2015. "Making the most of high inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3723-3739, July.
    5. Wojciech Charemza & Svetlana Makarova & Imran Shah, 2013. "Frequent episoded of high inflation and real effects," EcoMod2013 5478, EcoMod.
    6. Alan King & Carlyn Ramlogan-Dobson, 2016. "Is there club convergence in Latin America?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1011-1031, November.
    7. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Emily J. Whitehouse, "undated". "Testing for a unit root against ESTAR stationarity," Discussion Papers 17/02, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    8. Kauko, Karlo, 2010. "The feasibility of through-the-cycle ratings," Research Discussion Papers 14/2010, Bank of Finland.
    9. Phiri, Andrew & Dube, Wisdom, 2014. "Nutrition and economic growth in South Africa: A momentum threshold autoregressive (MTAR) approach," MPRA Paper 52950, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. King, Alan & Ramlogan-Dobson, Carlyn, 2015. "International income convergence: Is Latin America actually different?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 212-222.
    11. Mariam Camarero & Yurena Mendoza & Javier Ordóñez, 2011. "Re-examining CO2 emissions. Is the assessment of convergence meaningless?," Working Papers 2011/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    12. Pär Österholm, 2016. "The Long-run Relationship Between Stock Prices and GDP in Sweden," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 45(2), pages 283-297, July.
    13. King, Alan & Ramlogan-Dobson, Carlyn, 2015. "Is Africa Actually Developing?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 598-613.
    14. repec:spr:jknowl:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s13132-015-0265-4 is not listed on IDEAS

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