IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v66y2015icp598-613.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is Africa Actually Developing?

Author

Listed:
  • King, Alan
  • Ramlogan-Dobson, Carlyn

Abstract

The results of previous time-series studies of the income convergence hypothesis indicate that practically no African economies are systematically closing their income gap with the rich world. This implies that almost the entire continent is not ‘developing’ in the literal sense of the term. We argue that this finding reflects the assumptions of the discrete-break unit-root tests previously employed and the sample period chosen. We re-assess the hypothesis for 43 African economies using Fourier-type unit-root tests and find that as many as 18 are currently catching-up with the US. However, most only began to do so after the mid-1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • King, Alan & Ramlogan-Dobson, Carlyn, 2015. "Is Africa Actually Developing?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 598-613.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:66:y:2015:i:c:p:598-613
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.09.023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X14002885
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.09.023?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Christopoulos Dimitris K & Leon-Ledesma Miguel A., 2011. "International Output Convergence, Breaks, and Asymmetric Adjustment," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1-33, May.
    3. Augustin Kwasi Fosu, 2013. "Growth of African Economies: Productivity, Policy Syndromes and the Importance of Institutions," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 22(4), pages 523-551, August.
    4. Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.),Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677, Elsevier.
    5. Powell, Robert & Bird, Graham, 2010. "Aid and Debt Relief in Africa: Have They Been Substitutes or Complements?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 219-227, March.
    6. Knutsen, Carl Henrik, 2013. "Democracy, State Capacity, and Economic Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-18.
    7. repec:bla:devpol:v:27:y:2009:i:5:p:529-559 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 22(2), pages 187-231, June.
    9. de Brauw, Alan & Mueller, Valerie & Lee, Hak Lim, 2014. "The Role of Rural–Urban Migration in the Structural Transformation of Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 33-42.
    10. Glewwe, Paul & Maïga, Eugénie & Zheng, Haochi, 2014. "The Contribution of Education to Economic Growth: A Review of the Evidence, with Special Attention and an Application to Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 379-393.
    11. King, Alan & Ramlogan-Dobson, Carlyn, 2011. "Nonlinear time-series convergence: The role of structural breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 238-240, March.
    12. Boschini, Anne & Pettersson, Jan & Roine, Jesper, 2013. "The Resource Curse and its Potential Reversal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-41.
    13. McMillan, Margaret & Rodrik, Dani & Verduzco-Gallo, Íñigo, 2014. "Globalization, Structural Change, and Productivity Growth, with an Update on Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 11-32.
    14. Les Oxley & David Greasley, 1995. "A Time‐Series Perspective on Convergence: Australia, UK and USA since 1870," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(3), pages 259-270, September.
    15. Gupta, Sanjeev & Pattillo, Catherine A. & Wagh, Smita, 2009. "Effect of Remittances on Poverty and Financial Development in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 104-115, January.
    16. Junsoo Lee & Walter Enders, 2004. "Testing for a unit-root with a nonlinear Fourier function," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 457, Econometric Society.
    17. John M. Kagochi & Omar M. Al Nasser & Ellene Kebede, 2013. "Does financial development hold the key to economic growth?: the case of sub-saharan Africa," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 47(2), pages 61-79, July-Dece.
    18. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
    19. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    20. Jonathan Temple, 2005. "Dual Economy Models: A Primer For Growth Economists," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(4), pages 435-478, July.
    21. Chortareas, Georgios E. & Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol, 2002. "Nonlinear mean reversion in real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 411-417, November.
    22. Sana Harrabi & Lobna Bousrih & Mohammed Salisu, 2007. "Debt Relief and Credit to the Private Sector in African Countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 19(3), pages 469-480.
    23. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
    24. Michael A. Clemens & David McKenzie, 2018. "Why Don't Remittances Appear to Affect Growth?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(612), pages 179-209, July.
    25. Nicolas Depetris Chauvin & Aart Kraay, 2005. "What Has 100 Billion Dollars Worth of Debt Relief Done for Low- Income Countries?," International Finance 0510001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Alan King & Carlyn Ramlogan, 2008. "Is Latin America Catching Up? A Time‐Series Approach," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 397-415, May.
    27. Raphael Kaplinsky & Mike Morris, 2009. "The Asian Drivers and SSA: Is There a Future for Export‐oriented African Industrialisation?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(11), pages 1638-1655, November.
    28. Johansson, Pernilla, 2010. "Debt Relief, Investment and Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 1204-1216, September.
    29. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2008. "Revisiting the uncertain unit root in GDP and CPI: Testing for non-linear trend reversion," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 221-223, August.
    30. Zaka Ratsimalahelo & Mamadou Diang Barry, 2010. "Financial development and economic growth: evidence from West Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 2996-3009.
    31. Bichaka Fayissa & Christian Nsiah, 2013. "The impact of governance on economic growth in Africa," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 47(1), pages 91-108, January-J.
    32. Ahmed, Abdullahi D. & Suardi, Sandy, 2009. "Macroeconomic Volatility, Trade and Financial Liberalization in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1623-1636, October.
    33. FOSU, Augustin Kwasi, 2008. "Democracy and growth in Africa: Implications of increasing electoral competitiveness," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 442-444, September.
    34. Ralf Becker & Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2006. "A Stationarity Test in the Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 381-409, May.
    35. A. F. Galvao Jr & F. A. Reis Gomes, 2007. "Convergence or divergence in Latin America? A time series analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(11), pages 1353-1360.
    36. Harrison, Ann E. & Lin, Justin Yifu & Xu, Lixin Colin, 2014. "Explaining Africa’s (Dis)advantage," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 59-77.
    37. Augustin Kwasi Fosu, 2013. "Growth of African Economies: Productivity, Policy Syndromes and the Importance of Institutions," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 22(4), pages 523-551, August.
    38. Cohen, Daniel, 1993. "Low Investment and Large LDC Debt in the 1980's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 437-449, June.
    39. Menyah, Kojo & Nazlioglu, Saban & Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2014. "Financial development, trade openness and economic growth in African countries: New insights from a panel causality approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 386-394.
    40. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
    41. Misati, Roseline Nyakerario & Nyamongo, Esman Morekwa, 2012. "Financial liberalization, financial fragility and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 150-160.
    42. John Dawson & Amit Sen, 2007. "New evidence on the convergence of international income from a group of 29 countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 199-230, September.
    43. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    44. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, July.
    45. Presbitero, Andrea F., 2008. "Debt Relief Effectiveness and Institution Building," MPRA Paper 12597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    46. Krugman, Paul, 1988. "Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 253-268, November.
    47. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Hinich, Melvin J. & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2008. "Time series test of nonlinear convergence and transitional dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 337-339, September.
    48. Michael Clemens and David McKenzie, 2014. "Why Don't Remittances Appear to Affect Growth? - Working Paper 366," Working Papers 366, Center for Global Development.
    49. Olu Ajakaiye & Mthuli Ncube, 2010. "Infrastructure and Economic Development in Africa: An Overview," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 19(suppl_1), pages 3-12.
    50. Gries, Thomas & Kraft, Manfred & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2009. "Linkages Between Financial Deepening, Trade Openness, and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1849-1860, December.
    51. Huang, Yongfu, 2010. "Political Institutions and Financial Development: An Empirical Study," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 1667-1677, December.
    52. John Dawson & Mark Strazicich, 2010. "Time-series tests of income convergence with two structural breaks: evidence from 29 countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 909-912.
    53. Tunali, Çiǧdem Börke & Yilanci, Veli, 2010. "Are per capita incomes of MENA countries converging or diverging?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4855-4862.
    54. Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2005. "Growth and Wage Inequality in a Dual Economy," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 145-169, April.
    55. Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2012. "A Unit Root Test Using a Fourier Series to Approximate Smooth Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(4), pages 574-599, August.
    56. Sylvain Dessy & Désiré Vencatachellum, 2007. "Debt Relief and Social Services Expenditure: The African Experience, 1989–2003," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 19(1), pages 200-216.
    57. Aggarwal, Reena & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Pería, Maria Soledad Martínez, 2011. "Do remittances promote financial development?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 255-264, November.
    58. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2006. "Real convergence in Africa in the second-half of the 20th century," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 153-167.
    59. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Kaltani, Linda & Soto, Raimundo, 2012. "Aid, Real Exchange Rate Misalignment, and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 681-700.
    60. Rousseau, Peter L. & D’Onofrio, Alexandra, 2013. "Monetization, Financial Development, and Growth: Time Series Evidence from 22 Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 132-153.
    61. Bräutigam, Deborah & Tang, Xiaoyang, 2014. "“Going Global in Groups”: Structural Transformation and China’s Special Economic Zones Overseas," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 78-91.
    62. repec:bla:ecorec:v:71:y:1995:i:214:p:259-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    63. Enisan, Akinlo A. & Olufisayo, Akinlo O., 2009. "Stock market development and economic growth: Evidence from seven sub-Sahara African countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 162-171.
    64. Danny Cassimon & Bjorn Van Campenhout, 2008. "Comparative Fiscal Response Effects Of Debt Relief: An Application To African Hipcs," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(3), pages 427-442, September.
    65. Vishal Jaunky, 2013. "Democracy and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: a panel data approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 987-1008, October.
    66. Li, Qing & Papell, David, 1999. "Convergence of international output Time series evidence for 16 OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 267-280, September.
    67. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ogundari, Kolawole & Awokuse, Titus, 2018. "Human capital contribution to economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does health status matter more than education?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 131-140.
    2. Silva Lopes, Artur, 2016. "A simple proposal to improve the power of income convergence tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 92-95.
    3. Mwale, Martin Limbikani & Kamninga, Tony Mwenda, 2022. "Land rights and the impact of farm input subsidies on poverty convergence," MPRA Paper 112431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2016. "Rational Asymmetric Development, Piketty and Poverty in Africa," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 13(2), pages 221-246, December.
    5. Joao Amador & Antonio R. dos Santos, 2018. "Thirty years of economic growth in Africa," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp1802, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    6. Abiad, Abdul & Bluedorn, John & Guajardo, Jaime & Topalova, Petia, 2015. "The Rising Resilience of Emerging Market and Developing Economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-26.
    7. Clark, Don P. & Lima, Luiz Renato & Sawyer, W. Charles, 2016. "Stages of diversification in Africa," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 68-70.
    8. Ogundari, Kolawole, 2021. "Causal Relationship between Economic Growth and Agricultural productivity in Sub Saharan Africa: A Panel Cointegration Approach," MPRA Paper 110199, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Boako, Gideon & Alagidede, Paul, 2016. "African stock markets convergence: Regional and global analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 317-321.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. King, Alan & Ramlogan-Dobson, Carlyn, 2015. "International income convergence: Is Latin America actually different?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 212-222.
    2. Alan King & Carlyn Ramlogan-Dobson, 2016. "Is there club convergence in Latin America?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1011-1031, November.
    3. Tunali, Çiǧdem Börke & Yilanci, Veli, 2010. "Are per capita incomes of MENA countries converging or diverging?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4855-4862.
    4. Burcu Ozcan, 2014. "Does Income Converge among EU Member Countries following the Post-War Period? Evidence from the PANKPSS Test," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 22-38, October.
    5. Ceylan, Reşat & Abiyev, Vasif, 2016. "An examination of convergence hypothesis for EU-15 countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 96-105.
    6. Marin Ferry & Marc Raffinot, 2019. "Curse or Blessing? Has the Impact of Debt Relief Lived up to Expectations? A Review of the Effects of the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiatives for Low-Income Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(9), pages 1867-1891, September.
    7. Diego Romero‐Ávila, 2009. "The Convergence Hypothesis For Oecd Countries Reconsidered: Panel Data Evidence With Multiple Breaks, 1870–2003," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(4), pages 552-574, July.
    8. Silva Lopes, Artur, 2020. "Revisiting income convergence with DF-Fourier tests: old evidence with a new test," MPRA Paper 102208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. King Alan & Ramlogan-Dobson Carlyn, 2014. "Are income differences within the OECD diminishing? Evidence from Fourier unit root tests," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 185-199, April.
    10. Paul Johnson & Chris Papageorgiou, 2020. "What Remains of Cross-Country Convergence?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(1), pages 129-175, March.
    11. José Noguera-Santaella, 2017. "Is Sub-Saharan Africa catching up?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 555-575, March.
    12. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2006. "Real convergence in Africa in the second-half of the 20th century," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 153-167.
    13. Andrea F Presbitero, 2012. "Total Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 24(4), pages 606-626, September.
    14. Johansson, Pernilla, 2010. "Debt Relief, Investment and Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 1204-1216, September.
    15. Cheong, Tsun Se & Wu, Yanrui, 2013. "Regional disparity, transitional dynamics and convergence in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-14.
    16. Omid Ranjbar & Tsangyao Chang & Chien-Chiang Lee & Zahra Mila Elmi, 2018. "Catching-up process in the transition countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 249-278, August.
    17. Silva Lopes, Artur C., 2021. "Most likely you go your way (and I'll go mine): non-convergent incomes with a new DF-Fourier test," MPRA Paper 107676, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Mar 2021.
    18. Mahmud, Hassan, 2008. "Why has Growth slowed in Sub-Saharan Africa: A System GMM-IV Approach," MPRA Paper 25910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Guilherme Mendes Resende & Alexandre Xavier Ywata de Carvalho & Patrícia Alessandra Morita Sakowski, 2013. "Evaluating Multiple Spatial Dimensions of Economic Growth in Brazil Using Spatial Panel Data Models (1970 - 2000)," Discussion Papers 1830a, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    20. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:66:y:2015:i:c:p:598-613. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.