IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rza/ersawp/62.html

Income Convergence in Southern Africa: A Non-linear Time-Varying Coefficients Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Ntokozo Nzimande

    (University of Cape Town)

Abstract

This article investigated income per capita convergence in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) over the period 1980-2017 in a non-linear time-varying coefficients framework. The findings of the study suggested no overall income convergence in the SADC region, but evidence supporting the existence of convergence clubs was found indicat- ing that the SADC comprises five convergence clusters, each converging to its own steady-state equilibrium. These findings suggest that, to pro- mote convergence in the region, policies that explicitly target ’low income’ countries are warranted.

Suggested Citation

  • Ntokozo Nzimande, 2021. "Income Convergence in Southern Africa: A Non-linear Time-Varying Coefficients Approach," ERSA Working Paper Series 62, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  • Handle: RePEc:rza:ersawp:62
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ersawps.org/index.php/working-paper-series/article/view/62/43
    File Function: First version, 2021
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1771-1855, November.
    3. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Sul, Donggyu, 2007. "Some empirics on economic growth under heterogeneous technology," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 455-469, September.
    4. J. Paul Dunne & Nicholas Masiyandima, 2017. "Bilateral FDI from South Africa and Income Convergence in SADC," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(3), pages 403-415, September.
    5. John Ssozi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2016. "The Comparative Economics of Catch-up in Output per Worker, Total Factor Productivity and Technological Gain in Sub-Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 215-228, June.
    6. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    7. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
    8. Chiquiar, Daniel, 2005. "Why Mexico's regional income convergence broke down," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 257-275, June.
    9. Sevil Acar & Patrik Söderholm & Runar Brännlund, 2018. "Convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions: implications and meta-analysis," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 512-525, April.
    10. Hao Meng & Wen-Jie Xie & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2015. "Club Convergence of House Prices: Evidence from China's Ten Key Cities," Papers 1503.05550, arXiv.org.
    11. Ganong, Peter & Shoag, Daniel, 2017. "Why has regional income convergence in the U.S. declined?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 76-90.
    12. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    13. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2009. "Economic transition and growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1153-1185.
    14. Nicholas Apergis & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Convergence In Provincial-Level South African House Prices: Evidence From The Club Convergence And Clustering Procedure," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 2-17, March.
    15. Montagnoli, Alberto & Nagayasu, Jun, 2015. "UK house price convergence clubs and spillovers," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 50-58.
    16. Anthony J. Venables, 2010. "Economic geography and African development," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(3), pages 469-483, August.
    17. King, Alan & Ramlogan-Dobson, Carlyn, 2015. "Is Africa Actually Developing?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 598-613.
    18. Duran-Fernandez, Roberto & Santos, Georgina, 2014. "Regional convergence, road infrastructure, and industrial diversity in Mexico," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 103-110.
    19. Christian K. Tipoy, 2019. "Real Convergence using TAR Panel Unit Root Tests: An Application to The Southern African Development Community," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(1-2), pages 45-61, January-J.
    20. Faik Bilgili, 2016. "City Price Convergence in Turkey with Structural Breaks," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, vol. 6(3), pages 933-941.
    21. Ankita Mishra & Vinod Mishra, 2018. "Re-examination of convergence hypothesis among Indian states in panel stationarity testing framework with structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 268-286, January.
    22. Mihály Borsi & Norbert Metiu, 2015. "The evolution of economic convergence in the European Union," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 657-681, March.
    23. Hakim Hammouda & Stephen Karingi & Angelica Njuguna & Mustapha Jallab, 2009. "Why Doesn’t Regional Integration Improve Income Convergence in Africa?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 21(2), pages 291-330.
    24. Nicholas Apergis & Christina Christou & Stephen Miller, 2012. "Convergence patterns in financial development: evidence from club convergence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 1011-1040, December.
    25. Candelaria Barrios & Esther Flores & M. Ángeles Martínez, 2019. "Convergence clubs in Latin America," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 16-20, January.
    26. Burnett, J. Wesley, 2016. "Club convergence and clustering of U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 62-84.
    27. Suzanne McCoskey, 2002. "Convergence in Sub-Saharan Africa: a nonstationary panel data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 819-829.
    28. Basil Jones, 2002. "Economic Integration and Convergence of Per Capita Income in West Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 14(1), pages 18-47.
    29. Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande & Harold Ngalawa, 2017. "The endogeneity of business cycle synchronisation in SADC: A GMM approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1358914-135, January.
    30. Tian, Xu & Zhang, Xiaoheng & Zhou, Yingheng & Yu, Xiaohua, 2016. "Regional income inequality in China revisited: A perspective from club convergence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 50-58.
    31. Barrios, Candelaria & Flores, Esther & Martínez, M. Ángeles, 2019. "Convergence Clubs in Latin America," MPRA Paper 123434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Ntokozo Nzimande & Harold Ngalawa, 2019. "Fiscal Policy Sustainability in SADC Countries," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 86-97.
    33. Bah, Mohamed Siry, 2015. "Real convergence in West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU)," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 19-23.
    34. Parente, Stephen L & Prescott, Edward C, 1994. "Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 298-321, April.
    35. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Inekwe, John & Ivanovski, Kris, 2018. "House price convergence: Evidence from Australian cities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 88-90.
    36. Ron Martin & Peter Sunley, 1998. "Slow Convergence? The New Endogenous Growth Theory and Regional Development," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 74(3), pages 201-227, July.
    37. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2019. "Property heterogeneity and convergence club formation among local house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-13.
    38. Lant Pritchett, 1997. "Divergence, Big Time," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 3-17, Summer.
    39. Ali Acaravci & Sinan Erdogan, 2016. "The Convergence Behavior of CO2 Emissions in Seven Regions under Multiple Structural Breaks," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 6(3), pages 575-580.
    40. Ron Martin & Peter Sunley, 2003. "Deconstructing clusters: chaotic concept or policy panacea?," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 5-35, January.
    41. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2017. "Per capita carbon dioxide emissions across U.S. states by sector and fossil fuel source: Evidence from club convergence tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 365-372.
    42. Maria Eleftheriou & Nikolas A. Müller†Plantenberg, 2018. "Price level convergence and purchasing power divergence," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 71-91, March.
    43. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Theologos Pantelidis, 2009. "Club Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 44(1), pages 47-70, September.
    44. Kant, Chander, 2019. "Income convergence and the catch-up index," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 613-627.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mateusz Tomal, 2024. "A review of Phillips‐Sul approach‐based club convergence tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 899-930, July.
    2. Astarita, Caterina & Alcidi, Cinzia, 2024. "Uneven Paths to Prosperity: Club Convergence and Regional Disparities in Income, Inequality, and Poverty Across the EU," MPRA Paper 126984, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Vaseem Akram & Badri Narayan Rath & Pradipta Kumar Sahoo, 2024. "Club convergence in per capita carbon dioxide emissions across Indian states," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(8), pages 19907-19934, August.
    4. Sayel Basel & R. Prabhakara Rao & K. U. Gopakumar, 2021. "Analysis of club convergence for economies: identification and testing using development indices," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 885-908, October.
    5. Belloc, Ignacio & Molina, José Alberto, 2023. "Are greenhouse gas emissions converging in Latin America? Implications for environmental policies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 337-356.
    6. Mateusz Tomal, 2022. "Testing for overall and cluster convergence of housing rents using robust methodology: evidence from Polish provincial capitals," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 2023-2055, April.
    7. Kacou Yves Thierry Kacou, 2022. "Interregional inequality in Africa, convergence, and multiple equilibria: Evidence from nighttime light data," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 918-940, May.
    8. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah & Christian Nsiah, 2020. "Convergence in military expenditure and economic growth in Africa and its regional economic communities: evidence from a club clustering algorithm," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1832344-183, January.
    9. Cieślik, Andrzej & Wciślik, Dominika Róża, 2020. "Convergence among the CEE-8 economies and their catch-up towards the EU-15," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 39-48.
    10. UÄŸur UrsavaÅŸ & Veli Yilanci, 2023. "Convergence analysis of ecological footprint at different time scales: Evidence from Southern Common Market countries," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(2), pages 429-442, March.
    11. Sedat Alataş & Erkam Sarı, 2021. "An Empirical Investigation on Regional Disparities in Public Expenditures: Province Level Evidence from Turkey," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 217-240, November.
    12. Valerio Mendoza, Octasiano Miguel & Borsi, Mihály Tamás & Comim, Flavio, 2022. "Human capital dynamics in China: Evidence from a club convergence approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    13. Nicholas Apergis & Francisco J. Delgado & Claudia Suárez‐Arbesú, 2025. "Inequality and poverty in Spain: Insights from a regional convergence analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 1707-1723, April.
    14. Cavallaro, Eleonora & Villani, Ilaria, 2021. "Real income convergence and the patterns of financial integration in the EU," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    15. Jin Hu & Xuelei Xiong & Yuanyuan Cai & Feng Yuan, 2020. "The Ripple Effect and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Intra-Urban Housing Prices at the Submarket Level in Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-17, June.
    16. Belloc, Ignacio, 2024. "Family house prices in the US: Convergence clubs by county (1975-2022)," MPRA Paper 121487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Liu, Chang & Hong, Tao & Li, Huaifeng & Wang, Lili, 2018. "From club convergence of per capita industrial pollutant emissions to industrial transfer effects: An empirical study across 285 cities in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 300-313.
    18. Nicholas Apergis & James E. Payne, 2020. "NAFTA and the convergence of CO2 emissions intensity and its determinants," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 161, pages 1-9.
    19. Raj Rajesh & Deba Prasad Rath, 2022. "House Price Convergence: Evidence from India," Working papers 893, Banque de France.
    20. Mihály Borsi & Norbert Metiu, 2015. "The evolution of economic convergence in the European Union," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 657-681, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rza:ersawp:62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Maggi Sigg (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ersawps.org/index.php/working-paper-series/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.