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Evaluating Multiple Spatial Dimensions of Economic Growth in Brazil Using Spatial Panel Data Models (1970 - 2000)

  • Guilherme Mendes Resende
  • Alexandre Xavier Ywata de Carvalho
  • Patrícia Alessandra Morita Sakowski

O objetivo deste estudo consiste em avaliar os resultados de estimações de crescimento econômico regional em múltiplas escalas espaciais, utilizando modelos de painel espacial. As escalas espaciais examinadas são áreas mínimas comparáveis, microrregiões, mesorregiões e estados no período entre 1970 e 2000. Modelos alternativos de painel espacial com efeitos fixos foram estimados sistematicamente nestas escalas espaciais para demonstrar que os coeficientes estimados variam de acordo com a escala utilizada. Os resultados mostram que as conclusões obtidas a partir de regressões de crescimento dependem da escolha da escala espacial. Primeiramente, a hipótese de convergência de clube não pode ser rejeitada, sugerindo haver diferenças nos processos de convergência entre o norte e o sul do Brasil. Além disso, quanto mais agregada for a escala espacial utilizada, maior será o coeficiente positivo da média de anos de escolaridade. O efeito de custos de transporte é positivo e estatisticamente significante para o crescimento econômico apenas no nível do estado. Os coeficientes da densidade populacional mostram que áreas mais densamente povoadas são prejudiciais para o crescimento econômico, sugerindo efeitos de congestionamento no nível de áreas mínimas comparáveis (AMCs), microrregiões e mesorregiões, mas a magnitude destes coeficientes varia de acordo com a escala geográfica. Finalmente, os coeficientes de transbordamento espacial também variam conforme a escala espacial sob análise. Em geral, estes coeficientes são estatisticamente significantes nos níveis de AMC, microrregião e mesorregião; mas, no nível estadual, deixam de ser estatisticamente significantes, sugerindo que transbordamentos espaciais são limitados no espaço. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the results of regional economic growth estimates at multiple spatial scales using spatial panel data models. The spatial scales examined are minimum comparable areas, micro-regions, meso-regions and states over the period between 1970 and 2000. Alternative spatial panel data models with fixed effects were systematically estimated across those spatial scales to demonstrate that the estimated coefficients change with the scale level. The results show that the conclusions obtained from growth regressions are dependent on the choice of spatial scale. First, club convergence hypothesis cannot be rejected suggesting there are differences in the convergence processes between the north and south in Brazil. Moreover, the positive average-years-of-schooling coefficient gets larger as more aggregate spatial scales are used. Transportation costs effect is positive and statistically significant to economic growth only at the state level. Population density coefficients show that higher populated areas are harmful to economic growth demonstrating somehow that congestion effects are operating at the MCA, micro-regional and meso-regional spatial scales, but their magnitudes vary across the geographic scales. Finally, the values of spatial spillovers coefficients also vary according to the spatial scale under analysis. In general, such coefficients are statistically significant at the MCA, micro-regional and meso-regional levels; but, at state level those coefficients are no longer statistically significant suggesting that spatial spillovers are bounded in space.

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Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1830a.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1830a
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