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TradeModels and Trade Elasticities

Author

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  • Mike Waugh

    (New York University)

Abstract

This paper shows that new trade models with different micro-level margins--estimated to fit the same moments in the data--imply lower trade elasticities and, hence, larger welfare gains from trade relative to models without these margins. The key feature of the estimation approach is to focus on common moments where new micro-level margins, such as an extensive margin or variable markups, alter the mapping from the data to the estimate of the trade elasticity. We find that the introduction of an extensive margin as in Eaton and Kortum (2002) or Melitz (2003) increases the welfare cost of autarky by up to 50 percent relative to Armington or Krugman (1980) which feature no extensive margin. Variable markups in Bernard, Eaton, Jensen, and Kortum (2003) further increase the welfare cost of autarky by 50 percent relative to Eaton and Kortum (2002) which features perfect competition.

Suggested Citation

  • Mike Waugh, 2014. "TradeModels and Trade Elasticities," 2014 Meeting Papers 953, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed014:953
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew B. Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2003. "Plants and Productivity in International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1268-1290, September.
    2. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-1721, September.
    3. Scott Bradford, 2003. "Paying the Price: Final Goods Protection in OECD Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 24-37, February.
    4. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    5. Simonovska, Ina & Waugh, Michael E., 2014. "The elasticity of trade: Estimates and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 34-50.
    6. Keith Head & John Ries, 2001. "Increasing Returns versus National Product Differentiation as an Explanation for the Pattern of U.S.-Canada Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 858-876, September.
    7. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
    8. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Francis Kramarz, 2011. "An Anatomy of International Trade: Evidence From French Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1453-1498, September.
    9. Simonovska, Ina & Waugh, Michael E., 2014. "The elasticity of trade: Estimates and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 34-50.
    10. Costas Arkolakis & Svetlana Demidova & Peter J. Klenow & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2008. "Endogenous Variety and the Gains from Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 444-450, May.
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    12. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
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    14. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2012. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 94-130, February.
    15. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," Post-Print hal-03579844, HAL.
    16. Scott Bradford & Robert Z. Lawrence, 2004. "Has Globalization Gone Far Enough: The Costs of Fragmented Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 349, October.
    17. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jung, Jae Wook & Simonovska, Ina & Weinberger, Ariel, 2019. "Exporter heterogeneity and price discrimination: A quantitative view," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 103-124.
    2. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2023. "Diminishing Gains from Trade across Countries: Interaction between Trade Elasticity and Openness," Working Papers 2306, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    3. Giovanni Federico & Antonio Tena-Junguito, 2017. "A tale of two globalizations: gains from trade and openness 1800–2010," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(3), pages 601-626, August.
    4. Egger, Peter & Loumeau, Nicole, 2018. "The Economic Geography of Innovation," CEPR Discussion Papers 13338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Lyon, Spencer G. & Waugh, Michael E., 2018. "Redistributing the gains from trade through progressive taxation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 185-202.
    6. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2024. "Diminishing gains from trade across countries: Interaction between trade elasticity and openness," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).

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