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Une modélisation séquentielle de la VaR

Author

Listed:
  • Alain Monfort.

Abstract

We consider the VaR associated with the global loss generated by a set risk sources. We propose a sequence of simple models incorporating progressively the notions of contagion due to instantaneous correlations, of serial correlation, of evolution of the instantaneous correlations, of volatility clustering, of conditional heteroskedasticity and of persistency of shocks. The tools used are the standard and extended Kalman filters.

Suggested Citation

  • Alain Monfort., 2009. "Une modélisation séquentielle de la VaR," Working papers 250, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:250
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    File URL: https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/working-paper_250_2009.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Emmanuelle Lavallée & Vincent Vicard, 2013. "National borders matterwhere one draws the lines too," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(1), pages 135-153, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    VaR; factor models; correlation; volatility clustering; Kalman filter.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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