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Profit dynamics across the largest euro area countries and sectors

  • Maurin, Laurent
  • Roma, Moreno
  • Vetlov, Igor

This paper explores the behavior of profits in the four largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) and the euro area as a whole, while at the same time considering three main sectors (manufacturing, construction and services) in each economy over the period 1988–2010. The paper presents stylized facts about profit developments and, applying a vector autoregressive modeling framework, discusses the sensitivity of profits to four distinctive structural shocks (a demand shock, an employment shock, a wage and price mark-up shocks). In addition, it provides the shock decomposition of historical developments in profits across countries and sectors. JEL Classification: C32, E23, E25

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1410.

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Date of creation: Dec 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111410
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  1. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-42, October.
  2. Jose C. Farinas & Elena Huergo, 2003. "Profit Margins, Adjustment Costs and the Business Cycle: An Application to Spanish Manufacturing Firms," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(1), pages 49-72, February.
  3. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
  4. Roberto Torrini, 2005. "Profit Share and Returns on Capital Stock in Italy: the Role of Privatisations behind the Rise of the 1990s," CEP Discussion Papers dp0671, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  5. Gali, J., 1991. "Monopolistic Competition, Business Cycles and the Composition of Aggregate Demand," Papers 92-03, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  6. Macallan, Clare & Millard, Stephen & Parker, Miles, 2008. "The cyclicality of mark-ups and profit margins for the United Kingdom: some new evidence," Bank of England working papers 351, Bank of England.
  7. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Rebekka Christopoulou & Philip Vermeulen, 2012. "Markups in the Euro area and the US over the period 1981–2004: a comparison of 50 sectors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 53-77, February.
  9. Thomas Y. MATHA & Olivier PIERRARD, 2009. "Search in the Product Market and the Real Business Cycle," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2009019, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  10. Chatterjee, Satyajit & Cooper, Russell & Ravikumar, B, 1993. "Strategic Complementarity in Business Formation: Aggregate Fluctuations and Sunspot Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 795-811, October.
  11. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1991. "Markups and the Business Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 63-140 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Luis J. Álvarez & Guido Bulligan & Alberto Cabrero & Laurent Ferrara & Harald Stahl, 2010. "Housing Cycles In The Major Euro Area Countries," Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers 1001, Banco de Espa�a.
  13. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1992. "Oligopolistic Pricing and the Effects of Aggregate Demand on Economic Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1153-1207, December.
  14. McDonald, James Ted, 1999. "The Determinants of Firm Profitability in Australian Manufacturing," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(229), pages 115-26, June.
  15. Katharine S. Neiss, 2001. "The markup and inflation: evidence in OECD countries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 570-587, May.
  16. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454, October.
  17. Weitzman, Martin L, 1982. "Increasing Returns and the Foundations of Unemployment Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 787-804, December.
  18. Martin, Christopher, 1993. "Price adjustment and market structure," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 139-143.
  19. Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Stefano Scarpetta, 2002. "Estimation of the Cyclical Behaviour of Mark-ups: A Technical Note," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2002(1), pages 173-188.
  20. Christopher J. Nekarda & Valerie A. Ramey, 2013. "The Cyclical Behavior of the Price-Cost Markup," NBER Working Papers 19099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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