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The business cycle in historical perspective: Reconstructing quarterly data on Swedish GDP 1913-2014

Author

Listed:
  • Edvinsson, Rodney

    () (Dept. of Economic History, Stockholm University)

  • Hegelund, Erik

    () (Dept. of Economic History, Stockholm University)

Abstract

Although historical national accounts for Sweden belong to the most detailed in the world, hitherto no quarterly series of Sweden GDP has been published for the period before the 1960s. In this paper we present such a series back to 1913, using higher frequency series on manufacturing and private consumption as indicators, and standard methods for temporal disaggregation from annual GDP data. By applying the JDemetra+ software, we also estimate a deseasonalized volume time series. Based on this new quarterly data and the Bry-Boschan algorithm to identify peaks and troughs we present different chronologies of the classical business cycle in Sweden, indicating a somewhat new and more precise picture of the economic development for the last 100 years. We find that the new series provides new information on the business cycle, confirming its very irregular nature and detecting recessions that are not clearly indicated by annual data.

Suggested Citation

  • Edvinsson, Rodney & Hegelund, Erik, 2016. "The business cycle in historical perspective: Reconstructing quarterly data on Swedish GDP 1913-2014," Stockholm Papers in Economic History 18, Stockholm University, Department of Economic History.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:suekhi:0018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Watson, Mark W, 1994. "Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 24-46, March.
    2. Sax, Christoph & Steiner, Peter, 2013. "Temporal Disaggregation of Time Series," MPRA Paper 53389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, June.
    4. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Schön, Lennart & Krantz, Olle, 2015. "New Swedish Historical National Accounts since the 16th Century in Constant and Current Prices," Lund Papers in Economic History 140, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    6. Rodney Benjamin Edvinsson, 2013. "Swedish GDP 1620-1800 : stagnation or growth ?," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 7(1), pages 37-60, January.
    7. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, June.
    8. Fernandez, Roque B, 1981. "A Methodological Note on the Estimation of Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 471-476, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Quarterly GDP; Temporal disaggregation; Business cycles; Sweden;

    JEL classification:

    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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