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The longevity of expansions

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  • Joseph H. Haimowitz

Abstract

As the current expansion nears its eighth anniversary, it becomes tempting to wonder whether the second-longest expansion in U.S. economic history is nearing an end. The only U.S expansion to last longer was a nearly nine-year expansion that occurred during the Vietnam War. Thus, the current expansion is heading into uncharted territory as the longest peacetime expansion in U.S. history. The length of the current expansion might be viewed by some analysts as worrisome.> Haimowitz examines whether there has been a systematic shift in the behavior and length of expansions in the post-World War II period. Understanding whether there has been such a shift may help policymakers, businesses, and consumers evaluate the upside and downside risks to the economic outlook. The author argues that the length of the current expansion does not signal a downside risk to the economy. When viewed in the context of all other postwar expansions, the length of the current expansion should not be seen as worrisome.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph H. Haimowitz, 1998. "The longevity of expansions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q IV), pages 13-34.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:1998:i:qiv:p:13-34:n:v.83no.4
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