Regime-dependent recession forecasts and the 2001 recession
Business recessions are notoriously hard to predict accurately, hence the quip that economists have predicted eight of the last five recessions. This article derives a six-month-ahead recession signal that reduces the number of false signals outside of recession, without impairing the ability to signal the recessions that occur. In terms of predicting the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions out of sample, the new recession signal, like other signals, largely misses the 1990-91 recession with its six-month-ahead forecasts. In contrast, a recession onset in April or May 2001 was predicted six months ahead of the 2001 recession, which is close to the actual turning point of March 2001.
Volume (Year): (2002)
Issue (Month): Nov ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166|
Web page: http://www.stlouisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/ Email: |
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2002:i:nov:p:29-36:n:v.84no.6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kathy Cosgrove)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.