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Regime-dependent recession forecasts and the 2001 recession

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  • Michael J. Dueker

Abstract

Business recessions are notoriously hard to predict accurately, hence the quip that economists have predicted eight of the last five recessions. This article derives a six-month-ahead recession signal that reduces the number of false signals outside of recession, without impairing the ability to signal the recessions that occur. In terms of predicting the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions out of sample, the new recession signal, like other signals, largely misses the 1990-91 recession with its six-month-ahead forecasts. In contrast, a recession onset in April or May 2001 was predicted six months ahead of the 2001 recession, which is close to the actual turning point of March 2001.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael J. Dueker, 2002. "Regime-dependent recession forecasts and the 2001 recession," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 29-36.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2002:i:nov:p:29-36:n:v.84no.6
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    Cited by:

    1. George Monokroussos, 2013. "A Classical MCMC Approach to the Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models of Time Series," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 42(1), pages 71-105, June.
    2. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2006. "Enhanced reliability of the leading indicator in identifying turning points in Taiwan? an evaluation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(10), pages 1-17.
    3. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    4. Bell├ęgo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.
    5. Mehdi Mostaghimi, 2004. "Monetary policy, composite leading economic indicators and predicting the 2001 recession," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(7), pages 463-477.
    6. Henri Nyberg, 2010. "Dynamic probit models and financial variables in recession forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 215-230.
    7. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2006:i:10:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Lazzarini, S. G. & Madalozzo, R. C & Artes, R. & Siqueira, J. O., 2004. "Measuring trust: An experiment in Brazil," Insper Working Papers wpe_42, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Recessions ; Business cycles ; Forecasting;

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