On the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points
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- Robert Pater, 2014. "Are there two types of business cycles? a note on crisis detection," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, December.
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"A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience,"
NBER Chapters,in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 95-156
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
- Evan F. Koenig & Kenneth M. Emery, 1994.
"Why The Composite Index Of Leading Indicators Does Not Lead,"
Contemporary Economic Policy,
Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 52-66, January.
- Koenig, Evan F. & Emery, Kenneth M., 1993. "Why the composite index of leading indicators doesn't lead," Working Papers 9318, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Jagric Timotej, 2003. "A Nonlinear Approach to Forecasting with Leading Economic Indicators," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 1-20, July.
- Maki, Wilbur R., 1981. "Minnesota Economic Indicators," Staff Papers 13927, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
- Maki, Wilbur R. & Stenberg, Peter L., 1988. "Minnesota Economic Indicators: Part I Purpose And Precedent," Staff Papers 14014, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
- Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
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Keywordsmacroeconomics; cyclical turning points;
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