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On the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points

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  • Saul H. Hymans

    (University of Michigan)

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • Saul H. Hymans, 1973. "On the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(2), pages 339-384.
  • Handle: RePEc:bin:bpeajo:v:4:y:1973:i:1973-2:p:339-384
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    File URL: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/1973/06/1973b_bpea_hymans_greenspan_shiskin_early.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Maki, Wilbur R., 1981. "Minnesota Economic Indicators," Staff Papers 13927, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    2. Evan F. Koenig & Kenneth M. Emery, 1994. "Why The Composite Index Of Leading Indicators Does Not Lead," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 52-66, January.
    3. Maki, Wilbur R. & Stenberg, Peter L., 1988. "Minnesota Economic Indicators: Part I Purpose And Precedent," Staff Papers 14014, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    4. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Jagric Timotej, 2003. "A Nonlinear Approach to Forecasting with Leading Economic Indicators," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 1-20, July.
    6. Robert Pater, 2014. "Are there two types of business cycles? a note on crisis detection," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, December.
    7. Berneburg, Marian, 2003. "Composite Leading Indicators der amerikanischen Wirtschaft - Prognoseg├╝te des Conference Board und des OECD Ansatzes im Vergleich," IWH Discussion Papers 172, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    8. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Chapters,in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 95-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    Keywords

    macroeconomics; cyclical turning points;

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