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OECD Forecasts for the G7 Countries in 1969 - 1997

  • Matti Virén
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    This paper presents a review of OECD forecasts for the G7 countries for the period 1969 - 1997. The analysis deals with the magnitude, auto-correlation and eventual bias of the errors. In addition, we scrutinize the cyclical behavior of errors and try to identify the relationships between forecast values. In particular, we examine whether the Phillips curve relationship is the same for the actual data and the forecast values. The analyses clearly show that the forecasts are overly optimistic in terms of both output growth, public expenditure and inflation. Thus, for instance, output growth errors increase when output decreases and vice versa. The relationships between actual values and forecast values seem to differ but in a quite unsystematic way.

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    Paper provided by Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT) in its series Discussion Papers with number 187.

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    Date of creation: 01 Jan 1998
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:fer:dpaper:187
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    1. Palle S. Andersen, 1997. "Forecast errors and financial developments," BIS Working Papers 51, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Michael J. Artis, 1996. "How Accurate Are the Imf's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook," IMF Working Papers 96/89, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "How large are economic forecast errors?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 25-42.
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