OECD Forecasts for the G7 Countries in 1969 - 1997
This paper presents a review of OECD forecasts for the G7 countries for the period 1969 - 1997. The analysis deals with the magnitude, auto-correlation and eventual bias of the errors. In addition, we scrutinize the cyclical behavior of errors and try to identify the relationships between forecast values. In particular, we examine whether the Phillips curve relationship is the same for the actual data and the forecast values. The analyses clearly show that the forecasts are overly optimistic in terms of both output growth, public expenditure and inflation. Thus, for instance, output growth errors increase when output decreases and vice versa. The relationships between actual values and forecast values seem to differ but in a quite unsystematic way.
|Date of creation:||01 Jan 1998|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Arkadiankatu 7, P.O. Box 1279, FI-00101 Helsinki|
Phone: +358 295 519 400
Fax: +358 295 519 599
Web page: http://www.vatt.fi/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Palle S. Andersen, 1997. "Forecast errors and financial developments," BIS Working Papers 51, Bank for International Settlements.
- Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "How large are economic forecast errors?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 25-42.
- Michael J. Artis, 1996. "How Accurate Are the Imf's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook," IMF Working Papers 96/89, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fer:dpaper:187. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anita Niskanen)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.