Dating and Exploration of the Business Cycle in Iceland
The paper explores the quarterly sequence of business cycles in Iceland for 40 years between 1970 and 2009 using the business cycle technique of Leamer (2009). We apply first a turning point (TP) dating identification procedure based on the Hendrick-Prescott (HP) filter of the quarterly growth rates of GDP and then we use different candidates for leading indicators for turning points. We find that the Iceland economy has a rather short business cycle of about 3 years and most macroeconomic indicators are in accordance with the business cycles. Only a few indicators have a predictive potential, some variables like consumption show a one quarter lag. Furthermore, we apply the concept of abnormal contributions to growth for candidates as a leading indicator of turning points. We find that over the last decade there is some evidence that abnormal growth contributions are better indicators for troughs than for peaks.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Via Patara, 3, 47921 Rimini (RN)|
Web page: http://www.rcfea.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000.
"On crises, contagion, and confusion,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hong, Kiseok & Tornell, Aaron, 2005. "Recovery from a currency crisis: some stylized facts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 71-96, February. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:13_10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marco Savioli)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.