Aid Unpredictability and Economic Growth
In this paper, we examine the influence of unpredictable aid on a recipient’s economic growth. If aid amounts vary by year and the changes are unpredictable, we expect that this “unpredictability” decreases aid’s growth-enhancing effect. This naturally raises the questions: How large is the influence of aid “unpredictability” on a recipient’s economic growth? Does “unpredictability” significantly damage aid’s growth-enhancing effect? Our research shows that the impact is significant; in a typical case, one fifth of aid is wasted due to “unpredictability.” Further, it is possible that in some cases, the aid may be wasted by as much as one third.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Roodman, 2004.
"The Anarchy of Numbers: Aid, Development, and Cross-country Empirics,"
Development and Comp Systems
- David Roodman, 2007. "The Anarchy of Numbers: Aid, Development, and Cross-Country Empirics," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(2), pages 255-277, May.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 2013.
"Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa,"
World Scientific Book Chapters,
in: International Trade Agreements and Political Economy, chapter 19, pages 369-394
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Kose, M. Ayhan & Riezman, Raymond, 2001. "Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 55-80, June.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 1999. "Trade Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Africa," CESifo Working Paper Series 203, CESifo Group Munich.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 1999. "Trade Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Africa," CSGR Working papers series 43/99, Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation (CSGR), University of Warwick.
- Boone, Peter, 1996. "Politics and the effectiveness of foreign aid," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 289-329, February.
- Michel A. Robe & Stephane Pallage, 2000.
"Foreign Aid And The Business Cycle,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2000
107, Society for Computational Economics.
- Timothy D. Lane & Leslie Lipschitz & Cristina Arellano & Ales Bulir, 2005.
"The Dynamic Implications of Foreign Aid and Its Variability,"
IMF Working Papers
- Arellano, Cristina & Bulír, Ales & Lane, Timothy & Lipschitz, Leslie, 2009. "The dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 87-102, January.
- A. Javier Hamann & Ales Bulir, 2006.
"Volatility of Development Aid; From the Frying Pan into the Fire?,"
IMF Working Papers
- Bulír, Ales & Hamann, A. Javier, 2008. "Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2048-2066, October.
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008.
"Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," NBER Working Papers 11513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Raghuram Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "Aid and Growth; What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," IMF Working Papers 05/127, .
- Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Aid and Growth: What Does The Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," Working Papers id:54, eSocialSciences.
- Stéphane Pallage & Michel A. Robe & Catherine Bérubé, 2006. "The Potential of Foreign Aid as Insurance," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 1-5.
- Barro, Robert J., 1990.
"Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogeneous Growth,"
3451296, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
- Robert J. Barro, 1988. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 2588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, R.J., 1988. "Government Spending In A Simple Model Of Endogenous Growth," RCER Working Papers 130, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Oya Celasun & Jan Walliser, 2008. "Predictability of aid: Do fickle donors undermine aid effectiveness?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 23, pages 545-594, 07.
- Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992.
"Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
- Jonathan David Ostry & Carmen Reinhart, 1991. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks; Evidence From Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 91/100, .
- Robert G. King & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2000.
"Resuscitating Real Business Cycles,"
RCER Working Papers
467, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-396, March.
- Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
- Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March.
- Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2003. "On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 677-698, 05.
- Pierre-Richard Agénor & Joshua Aizenman, 2007.
"Aid Volatility and Poverty Traps,"
NBER Working Papers
13400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(262), pages 157-179, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:40:y:2012:i:2:p:266-272. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.