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Aid Unpredictability and Economic Growth

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  • Kodama, Masahiro

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the influence of unpredictable aid on a recipient’s economic growth. If aid amounts vary by year and the changes are unpredictable, we expect that this “unpredictability” decreases aid’s growth-enhancing effect. This naturally raises the questions: How large is the influence of aid “unpredictability” on a recipient’s economic growth? Does “unpredictability” significantly damage aid’s growth-enhancing effect? Our research shows that the impact is significant; in a typical case, one fifth of aid is wasted due to “unpredictability.” Further, it is possible that in some cases, the aid may be wasted by as much as one third.

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  • Kodama, Masahiro, 2012. "Aid Unpredictability and Economic Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 266-272.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:40:y:2012:i:2:p:266-272
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.07.015
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    1. Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont Jeanneney, Sylviane & Wagner, Laurent, 2017. "How to Take into Account Vulnerability in Aid Allocation Criteria and Lack of Human Capital as Well: Improving the Performance Based Allocation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 27-40.
    2. Patrick Guillaumont & Laurent Wagner, 2014. "Aid Effectiveness for Poverty Reduction: Lessons from Cross‑country Analyses, with a Special Focus on Vulnerable Countries," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 22(HS01), pages 217-261.
    3. Gustavo Javier Canavire‐Bacarreza & Eric Neumayer & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2015. "Why Aid is Unpredictable: An Empirical Analysis of the Gap Between Actual and Planned Aid Flows," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 440-463, 05-27.
    4. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2020. "Effect of Aid for Trade Unpredictability on Trade Policy in Recipient-Countries," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 19(2), pages 177-203, December.
    5. Pietro Alessandrini & Andrea Presbitero, 2012. "Low-Income Countries and an SDR-based International Monetary System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 129-150, February.
    6. Robert Stojanov & Daniel Němec & Libor Žídek, 2019. "Evaluation of the Long-Term Stability and Impact of Remittances and Development Aid on Sustainable Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, March.
    7. Aurore Gary & Mathilde Maurel, 2013. "The effect of donors' policy coherence on growth," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00825816, HAL.
    8. Giorgio Gualberti & Luis Filipe Martins & Morgan Bazilian, 2012. "An Econometric Analysis of the Effectiveness of Development Finance for the Energy Sector," Working Papers 2012.100, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    9. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Aid for trade unpredictability and trade-related government expenditure in recipient-countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 107-125.
    10. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2024. "The quality of Aid for Trade flows and economic complexity," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 705-747, October.
    11. Tony Addison & Finn Tarp, 2015. "Lessons for Japanese foreign aid from research on aid's impact," WIDER Working Paper Series 058, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "The Quality of Aid for Trade Flows and Economic Complexity," EconStor Preprints 271538, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    13. Anna Minasyan & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2016. "Remittances and the Effectiveness of Foreign Aid," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 681-701, August.
    14. repec:unu:wpaper:wp201558 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Chen, Hong & Singh, Baljeet, 2016. "Official Development Assistance, Public Investment and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 6(2), pages 73-96.
    16. Boateng, Elliot & Agbola, Frank W. & Mahmood, Amir, 2021. "Foreign aid volatility and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does institutional quality matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 111-127.
    17. Aruna Gounder & Priteshni Chand & Avineel Kumar, 2024. "Government Debt and Foreign Aid: Do They Matter for Economic Growth in Small Island Economies? Empirical Evidence from the Pacific Islands," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 8327-8348, June.
    18. Masahiro Kodama, 2013. "External Shocks and High Volatility in Consumption in Low-Income Countries," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 51(3), pages 278-302, September.
    19. Minasyan, Anna & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2015. "Donors' openness to immigration and the effectiveness of foreign aid," Kiel Working Papers 1983, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2015-58 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Lucas Njoroge, 2021. "Capital Inflows and Economic Growth in Selected COMESA Member Countries," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(4), pages 1-3.
    22. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Nihal Bayraktar, 2020. "Aid Volatility, Human Capital, and Growth," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(3), pages 401-448.
    23. Tony Addison & Finn Tarp, 2015. "Lessons for Japanese Foreign Aid from Research on Aid's Impact," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-058, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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