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Why Aid is Unpredictable: An Empirical Analysis of the Gap Between Actual and Planned Aid Flows

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  • Gustavo Javier Canavire‐Bacarreza
  • Eric Neumayer
  • Peter Nunnenkamp

Abstract

Aid flows continue to be volatile and unpredictable, even though it is widely accepted that this erodes the effectiveness of foreign aid. We argue that fragmented donor–recipient relationships, notably the large number of minor aid relations that tend to be associated with donors' desire to ‘fly their flag’ around the world, increase aid unpredictability. Our empirical analysis of the determinants of aid unpredictability suggests that aid becomes less predictable with more fragmented donor–recipient relationships. Specifically, the effect of fragmentation on overshooting previous spending plans is statistically significant and substantively important. In contrast, fragmented donor–recipient relationships have no effect on the shortfall of actual aid compared with donors' spending plans. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Javier Canavire‐Bacarreza & Eric Neumayer & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2015. "Why Aid is Unpredictable: An Empirical Analysis of the Gap Between Actual and Planned Aid Flows," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 440-463, 05-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:27:y:2015:i:4:p:440-463
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    Cited by:

    1. Rune Jansen Hagen, 2018. "Losing concentration? Lessons from a Swedish aid policy reform," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 36(S2), pages 984-1003, September.
    2. Tobias Heinrich & Yoshiharu Kobayashi, 2022. "Evaluating explanations for poverty selectivity in foreign aid," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 30-47, February.
    3. Alessandro De Matteis, 2018. "Follow the leader! The peer effect in aid supply decisions," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 36(6), pages 631-648, October.
    4. M. Rodwan Abouharb & David Cingranelli & Mikhail Filippov, 2019. "Too Many Cooks: Multiple International Principals Can Spoil the Quality of Governance," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-22, May.
    5. Fløgstad, Cathrin & Hagen, Rune Jansen, 2017. "Aid Dispersion: Measurement in Principle and Practice," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 232-250.
    6. Bernhard Reinsberg & Centre for Business Research, 2018. "Blockchain Technology and the Governance of Foreign Aid," Working Papers wp505, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    7. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2024. "The quality of Aid for Trade flows and economic complexity," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 705-747, October.
    8. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "The Quality of Aid for Trade Flows and Economic Complexity," EconStor Preprints 271538, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    9. Cormier, Ben & Heinzel, Mirko & Reinsberg, Bernhard, 2024. "Informally governing international development: G7 coordination and orchestration in aid," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122594, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Iannantuoni, Alice, 2025. "Foreign aid volatility and institutional development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid

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