IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unu/wpaper/rp2007-38.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Short-Run Macroeconomic Impact of Foreign Aid to Small States: An Agnostic Timeseries Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Henrik Hansen
  • Derek Headey

Abstract

This study econometrically evaluates the short-run impact of aid in small developing countries (SDCs) by applying a VAR model to study aid's impact on 'absorption' (increasing import demand) and 'spending' (increased domestic demand) across countries. Whilst our approach allows parameters to vary across countries, the focus is on average country effects and differential effects within certain subgroups of countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Henrik Hansen & Derek Headey, 2007. "The Short-Run Macroeconomic Impact of Foreign Aid to Small States: An Agnostic Timeseries Analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2007-38, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2007-38
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/rp2007-38.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stéphane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2001. "Foreign Aid and the Business Cycle," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 641-672, November.
    2. Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Ummul Hasanath Ruthbah, 2008. "Where Did All the Aid Go? An Empirical Analysis of Absorption and Spending," IMF Working Papers 2008/034, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Easterly, William & Kraay, Aart, 2000. "Small States, Small Problems? Income, Growth, and Volatility in Small States," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2013-2027, November.
    4. BARTEN, Anton P., 1969. "Maximum likelihood estimation of a complete system of demand equations," LIDAM Reprints CORE 34, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    5. Barten, A. P., 1969. "Maximum likelihood estimation of a complete system of demand equations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 7-73.
    6. Bulír, Ales & Hamann, A. Javier, 2008. "Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2048-2066, October.
    7. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    8. Hsiao,Cheng & Pesaran,M. Hashem & Lahiri,Kajal & Lee,Lung Fei (ed.), 1999. "Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variable Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521631693.
    9. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    10. Kajal Lahiri, 2005. "Analysis of Panel Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(4), pages 1093-1095.
    11. Milner, Chris & Westaway, Tony, 1993. "Country size and the medium-term growth process: Some cross-country evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 203-211, February.
    12. Mr. Peter S. Heller & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, 2002. "Challenges in Expanding Development Assistance," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 2002/005, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Armstrong, H. & De Kervenoael, R. J. & Li, X. & Read, R., 1998. "A comparison of the economic performance of different micro-states, and between micro-states and larger countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 639-656, April.
    14. Nancy Birdsall & Stijn Claessens & Ishac Diwan, 2003. "Policy Selectivity Forgone: Debt and Donor Behavior in Africa," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 17(3), pages 409-435, December.
    15. Bertram, Geoffrey, 1993. "Sustainability, aid, and material welfare in small south pacific island economies, 1900-1990," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 247-258, February.
    16. Streeten, Paul, 1993. "The special problems of small countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 197-202, February.
    17. Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Mumtaz Hussain & Mr. Shaun K. Roache & Ms. Amber A Mahone & Mr. Tokhir N Mirzoev & Mr. Shekhar Aiyar, 2007. "The Macroeconomics of Scaling Up Aid: Lessons from Recent Experience," IMF Occasional Papers 2007/002, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Ale Bulir & A. Javier Hamann, 2003. "Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 1-4.
    19. Robert Osei & Oliver Morrissey & Tim Lloyd, 2005. "The fiscal effects of aid in Ghana," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(8), pages 1037-1053.
    20. Harvey W. Armstrong & Robert Read, 2002. "The phantom of liberty?: economic growth and the vulnerability of small states," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 435-458.
    21. repec:bla:devpol:v:25:y:2007:i:2:p:167-192 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Briguglio, Lino, 1995. "Small island developing states and their economic vulnerabilities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 1615-1632, September.
    23. repec:bla:reviec:v:9:y:2001:i:4:p:641-72 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Simon Feeny, 2007. "Impacts of Foreign Aid to Melanesia," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 34-60.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kar, Ashim Kumar, 2016. "Aid and Human Development: Is There A Role for Good Policy Environment?," MPRA Paper 95433, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    2. Joanna Gravier-Rymaszewska, 2012. "How Aid Supply Responds to Economic Crises: A Panel VAR Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-025, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Qayyum, Unbreen & Din, Musleh-ud & Haider, Adnan, 2014. "Foreign aid, external debt and governance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 41-52.
    4. Robert Gillanders, 2016. "The Effects of Foreign Aid in Sub-Saharan Africa," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(3), pages 339-360.
    5. Temple, Jonathan & Van de Sijpe, Nicolas, 2017. "Foreign aid and domestic absorption," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 431-443.
    6. Alege P.O. & George E.O. & Ojeaga P.I. & Oluwatimiro Q., 2015. "Is Africa’s current growth reducing inequality? Evidence from some selected african countries," Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS), "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 3(1), pages 49-67, June.
    7. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jeffrey A Edwards & Alfredo A. Romero, 2020. "Volatility, island nations and small states," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 248-254.
    9. Zoundi, Zakaria, 2015. "The Absorption and Spending Capacity of Aid in the Economic Community of West African States," MPRA Paper 66736, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Aug 2015.
    10. Lof, Matthijs & Mekasha, Tseday Jemaneh & Tarp, Finn, 2015. "Aid and Income: Another Time-series Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 19-30.
    11. Wei-long Wu & Changqi Shao, 2023. "How does home and host-country policy uncertainty affect outward FDI? Firm-level evidence from China," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(2), pages 495-515, July.
    12. Gravier-Rymaszewska, Joanna, 2012. "How Aid Supply Responds to Economic Crises: A Panel VAR Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series 025, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Shonchoy, Abu, 2010. "The Dynamics of Spending and Absorption of Aid: Panel Data Analysis," MPRA Paper 24530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ahiteme N. Houndonougbo, 2017. "Aid Volatility and Real Business Cycles in a Developing Open Economy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(3), pages 756-773, January.
    15. Lof, Matthijs & Mekasha, Tseday Jemaneh & Tarp, Finn, 2015. "Aid and Income: Another Time-series Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 19-30.
    16. Hendrik W. Kruse & Inmaculada Martínez‐Zarzoso, 2021. "Transfers in the gravity equation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 410-442, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patrick Guillaumont & Catherine Korachais & Julie Subervie, 2008. "Growth Oriented Macroeconomic Policies for Small Islands Economies: Lessons from Singapore," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-47, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "An Economic Vulnerability Index: Its Design and Use for International Development Policy," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 193-228.
    3. Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Aid and Conditionality," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4415-4523, Elsevier.
    4. Read, Robert, 2004. "The Implications of Increasing Globalization and Regionalism for the Economic Growth of Small Island States," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 365-378, February.
    5. Nuruddeen USMAN & Martins.O. APINRAN, 2019. "The Impact of Aid and Macroeconomic Policy on Growth in Nigeria: A Bounds Testing Approach," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(5), pages 581-603, May.
    6. Baldacchino, Godfrey, 2006. "Innovative development strategies from Non-Sovereign Island jurisdictions? A global review of economic policy and governance practices," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 852-867, May.
    7. van der Velde, M. & Green, S.R. & Vanclooster, M. & Clothier, B.E., 2007. "Sustainable development in small island developing states: Agricultural intensification, economic development, and freshwater resources management on the coral atoll of Tongatapu," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2-3), pages 456-468, March.
    8. Skerdilajda Zanaj & Patrice Pieretti & Benteng Zou, 2021. "On the long run sustainability of small jurisdictions," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 48(1), pages 15-35, March.
    9. Anna Maria Pinna & Vania Licio, 2013. "Measuring insularity as a state of nature. Is there a case of bad geography," ERSA conference papers ersa13p706, European Regional Science Association.
    10. Easterly, William & Kraay, Aart, 2000. "Small States, Small Problems? Income, Growth, and Volatility in Small States," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2013-2027, November.
    11. Tom Crowards, 2002. "Defining the category of 'small' states," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 143-179.
    12. Lino P. Briguglio & Melchior Vella, 2015. "Labour demand in the EU and returns to scale: A production function approach," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(8), pages 1103-1116, December.
    13. Luca Brandi, 2004. "The Economy of Small States," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 94(6), pages 145-173, November-.
    14. Geoffrey BERTRAM, 2015. "Is Independence Good Or Bad For Development In Small Island Economies? A Long-Run Analysis," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 42, pages 31-54.
    15. Easterly, William*Kraay, Aart, 1999. "Small states, small problems?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2139, The World Bank.
    16. Vania Licio & Anna Maria Pinna, 2021. "Measuring insularity as a state of nature," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(4), pages 979-1004, August.
    17. Yoichi Otsubo & Theoharry Grammatikos & Thorsten Lehnert, 2012. "Market Perceptions of US and European Policy Actions Around the Subprime Crisis," DEM Discussion Paper Series 12-14, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    18. Baltagi, Badi H. & Bresson, Georges & Pirotte, Alain, 2012. "Forecasting with spatial panel data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3381-3397.
    19. S. Guillaumont Jeanneney & S. J‐A. Tapsoba, 2012. "Aid and Income Stabilization," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 216-229, May.
    20. Patrick Guillaumont, 2010. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and the Least Developed Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 828-854.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2007-38. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Siméon Rapin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/widerfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.