IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/epolit/v40y2023i2d10.1007_s40888-023-00298-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How does home and host-country policy uncertainty affect outward FDI? Firm-level evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Wei-long Wu

    (Xiamen University of Technology)

  • Changqi Shao

    (Zhengzhou University)

Abstract

How the foreign direct investment behavior of enterprises changes in response to the risks and instability of government economic policy changes is a relevant issue which, however, has not been extensively studied yet. Accordingly, this paper establishes a linear probability regression model to study the foreign direct investment behavior of Chinese A-share listed companies in 13 countries between 2003 and 2020 and explores whether multinational companies change their OFDI decisions when the economic policy environment of China and trade-related countries are unstable. A firm heterogeneity analysis and phased discussions were conducted, and a robust conclusion was finally drawn. The results show that (1) China’s economic policy uncertainty promotes China’s foreign direct investment, while the host country’s monetary policy uncertainty inhibits China’s foreign direct investment. (2) The foreign direct investment decisions of enterprises are affected not only by the macroeconomic and policy environment of the two trading countries but also by their development characteristics. (3) Sino-US trade frictions and the financial crisis have different effects on China’s foreign direct investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei-long Wu & Changqi Shao, 2023. "How does home and host-country policy uncertainty affect outward FDI? Firm-level evidence from China," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(2), pages 495-515, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:epolit:v:40:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s40888-023-00298-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s40888-023-00298-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40888-023-00298-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40888-023-00298-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Predict Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility? Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 229-250, April.
    2. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 73-92, February.
    3. Shiwei Xu & Yumei Zhang & Xinshen Diao & Kevin Z. Chen, 2011. "Impacts of agricultural public spending on Chinese food economy," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(4), pages 518-534, November.
    4. Colombo, Valentina, 2013. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro area?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 39-42.
    5. Liu, Chang & Liu, Linlin & Zhang, Dayong & Fu, Jiasha, 2021. "How does the capital market respond to policy shocks? Evidence from listed solar photovoltaic companies in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. John Ahlquist & Aseem Prakash, 2010. "FDI and the costs of contract enforcement in developing countries," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 43(2), pages 181-200, June.
    7. Busse, Matthias & Hefeker, Carsten, 2007. "Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 397-415, June.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    9. Bordo, Michael D. & Duca, John V. & Koch, Christoffer, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and the credit channel: Aggregate and bank level U.S. evidence over several decades," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 90-106.
    10. Henrik Hansen & Derek Headey, 2010. "The Short-Run Macroeconomic Impact of Foreign Aid to Small States: An Agnostic Time Series Analysis," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 877-896.
    11. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    12. Yu Li & Feng Ma & Yaojie Zhang & Zuoping Xiao, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and the Chinese stock market volatility: new evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(49), pages 5398-5410, October.
    13. Dabrowski, Marek, 2010. "The global financial crisis: Lessons for European integration," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 38-54, March.
    14. Vikrant Shirodkar & Alexander T. Mohr, 2015. "Resource Tangibility and Foreign Firms’ Corporate Political Strategies in Emerging Economies: Evidence from India," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 55(6), pages 801-825, December.
    15. Li, Xiao, 2020. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty on insider trades: A cross-country analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 41-57.
    16. Binder, Carola C., 2017. "Measuring uncertainty based on rounding: New method and application to inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-12.
    17. Y. Fassin & D. Gossselin, 2011. "The collapse of a European bank in the financial crisis: an analysis from strategic, stakeholder, ethical and governance perspectives," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/726, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    18. Hsieh, Hui-Ching & Boarelli, Sofia & Vu, Thi Huyen Chi, 2019. "The effects of economic policy uncertainty on outward foreign direct investment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 377-392.
    19. Anderson, John & Sutherland, Dylan, 2015. "Developed economy investment promotion agencies and emerging market foreign direct investment: The case of Chinese FDI in Canada," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 815-825.
    20. Yves Fassin & Derrick Gosselin, 2011. "The Collapse of a European Bank in the Financial Crisis: An Analysis from Stakeholder and Ethical Perspectives," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 102(2), pages 169-191, August.
    21. Jeroen Warner & Neda Zawahri, 2012. "Hegemony and asymmetry: multiple-chessboard games on transboundary rivers," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 215-229, September.
    22. Hryckiewicz, Aneta, 2014. "What do we know about the impact of government interventions in the banking sector? An assessment of various bailout programs on bank behavior," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 246-265.
    23. Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Monetary policy in exceptional times [Preventing deflation: Lessons from Japan’s experience in the 1990s]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 295-339.
    24. H. Holly Wang AND Milton Boyd & Shiwei Xu & Yumei Zhang & Xinshen Diao & Kevin Z. Chen, 2011. "Impacts of agricultural public spending on Chinese food economy," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(4), pages 518-534, November.
    25. Giovanni Ferri & Li-Gang Liu, 2010. "Honor Thy Creditors Beforan Thy Shareholders: Are the Profits of Chinese State-Owned Enterprises Real?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 9(3), pages 50-71, Fall.
    26. Mohamed Abdouli & Sami Hammami, 2017. "Economic growth, FDI inflows and their impact on the environment: an empirical study for the MENA countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 121-146, January.
    27. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2013. "Policy uncertainty, irreversibility, and cross-border flows of capital," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    28. Abbas Valadkhani & George Chen & Bernice Kotey, 2014. "Asymmetric changes in Australia’s small business loan rate," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 945-957, December.
    29. Karnizova, Lilia & Li, Jiaxiong (Chris), 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty, financial markets and probability of US recessions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 261-265.
    30. Feng, George & Mu, Xianzhong, 2010. "Cultural challenges to Chinese oil companies in Africa and their strategies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7250-7256, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    2. Smales, Lee A., 2020. "Examining the relationship between policy uncertainty and market uncertainty across the G7," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Nguyen, Thanh Cong, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. Prüser, Jan & Schlösser, Alexander, 2017. "The effects of economic policy uncertainty on European economies: Evidence from a TVP-FAVAR," Ruhr Economic Papers 708, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Ozili, Peterson Kitakogelu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty in banking: a literature review," MPRA Paper 108017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Muhammad Shahbaz & Arshian Sharif & Fateh Belaid & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2023. "Long‐run co‐variability between oil prices and economic policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1308-1326, April.
    7. Chada, Swechha, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainties and institutional ownership in India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    8. Ozili, Peterson K & Arun, Thankom, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty affect bank profitability?," MPRA Paper 114403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Lee, Seohyun, 2017. "Three essays on uncertainty: real and financial effects of uncertainty shocks," MPRA Paper 83617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Jan Prüser & Alexander Schlösser, 2020. "The effects of economic policy uncertainty on European economies: evidence from a TVP-FAVAR," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 2889-2910, June.
    11. Yin DAI & Jing-wen ZHANG & Xiu-zhen YU & Xin LI, 2017. "Causality between economic policy uncertainty and exchange rate in China with considering quantile differences," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(612), A), pages 29-38, Autumn.
    12. Liyan Han & Mengchao Qi & Libo Yin, 2016. "Macroeconomic policy uncertainty shocks on the Chinese economy: a GVAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(51), pages 4907-4921, November.
    13. Saud Asaad Al‐Thaqeb & Barrak Ghanim Algharabali & Khaled Tareq Alabdulghafour, 2022. "The pandemic and economic policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2784-2794, July.
    14. Azzimonti, Marina, 2019. "Does partisan conflict deter FDI inflows to the US?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 162-178.
    15. Nguyen Phuc Canh & Nguyen Thanh Binh & Su Dinh Thanh & Christophe Schinckus, 2020. "Determinants of foreign direct investment inflows: The role of economic policy uncertainty," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 161, pages 159-172.
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:037 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020. "Economic uncertainty and bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    18. Mehmet Balcilar & George Ike & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Predicting Output Growth in Emerging Markets: A Mixed-Frequency Granger Causality Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(4), pages 1008-1026, March.
    19. Guo, Junjie & Li, Youshu & Shao, Qinglong, 2022. "Cross-category spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty between China and the US: Time and frequency evidence," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    20. Pär Stockhammar & Pär Österholm, 2017. "The Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks on Small Open Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 347-368, April.
    21. Oliver E. Ogbonna & Jonathan E. Ogbuabor & Charles O. Manasseh & Davidmac O. Ekeocha, 2022. "Global uncertainty, economic governance institutions and foreign direct investment inflow in Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2111-2136, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:epolit:v:40:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s40888-023-00298-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.