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Does economic policy uncertainty affect bank profitability?

Author

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  • Peterson K. Ozili
  • Thankom G. Arun

Abstract

Purpose - Managers are concerned about how the macroeconomic environment affects business profit. Focusing on banks, this study aims to investigate the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on bank profitability in 22 advanced countries. Design/methodology/approach - The study used the panel fixed effect regression methodology to assess the effect of EPU on several measures of bank profitability for 22 advanced countries from 1998 to 2017. The measures of bank profitability are net interest margin, lending-deposit spread, non-interest income (NII) ratio, after-tax return on asset, before-tax return on asset, after-tax return on equity and before-tax return on equity. Findings - The findings reveal that high EPU negatively affects bank NII. Real gross domestic product growth rate, nonperforming loans and regulatory capital ratio are negatively related to profitability in times of high EPU. The findings also reveal that high EPU has a positive effect on bank profitability in Asia and the region of the Americas, as these regions witnessed high return on equity in times of high EPU. Practical implications - The implication of the findings is that, although EPU has a depressive effect on some indicators of bank profitability, regional characteristics can ameliorate the depressive effects of EPU on bank profitability. Originality/value - This study contributes to the literature that examine the economic consequences of EPU on firms. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is among the first to examine how regional characteristics affect the relationship between EPU and bank profitability using cross-country data.

Suggested Citation

  • Peterson K. Ozili & Thankom G. Arun, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty affect bank profitability?," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 19(4), pages 803-830, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:ijmfpp:ijmf-04-2022-0177
    DOI: 10.1108/IJMF-04-2022-0177
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    Cited by:

    1. Mao, Fengfu & Wang, Yuanfan & Zhu, Mengsi, 2023. "Digital financial inclusion, traditional finance system and household entrepreneurship," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Karkowska, Renata & Korzeb, Zbigniew & Niedziółka, Paweł, 2025. "Inflation's dual impact on European banks' profitability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 64-77.
    3. Bales, Stephan & Burghartz, Kaspar & Burghof, Hans-Peter & Hitz, Lukas, 2023. "Does the source of uncertainty matter? The impact of financial, newspaper and Twitter-based measures on U.S. banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Jamil, Abd Rahim Md. & Law, Siong Hook & Mohamad Khair-Afham, M.S. & Trinugroho, Irwan, 2023. "Financial inclusion and economic uncertainty in developing countries: The role of digitalisation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 786-806.
    5. Omar Fikrat Fateh Tarzibash & Hasan Ozyapici, 2025. "Analyzing the effect of economic policy uncertainty in healthcare: the role of working capital management and environmental performance index," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(8), pages 20323-20344, August.
    6. Fabian Moodley & Babatunde Lawrence & Surendran Pilla, 2024. "The Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and South African Commercial Bank Performance," Finance, Accounting and Business Analysis, University of National and World Economy, Institute for Economics and Politics, vol. 6(2), pages 109-119, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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