IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unu/wpaper/wp-2011-051.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Long-Run Impact of Foreign Aid in 36 African Countries: Insights from Multivariate Time Series Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Katarina Juselius
  • Niels Framroze Møller
  • Finn Tarp

Abstract

Studies of aid effectiveness abound in the literature, often with opposing conclusions. Since most time-series studies use data from the exact same publicly available data bases, our claim here is that such differences in results must be due to the use of different econometric models and methods. To investigate this we perform a comprehensive study of the long-run effect of foreign aid (ODA) on a set of key macroeconomic variables in 36 sub-Saharan African countries from mid-1960s to 2007. We use a well-specified (Cointegrated) VAR (CVAR) model as our statistical benchmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarina Juselius & Niels Framroze Møller & Finn Tarp, 2011. "The Long-Run Impact of Foreign Aid in 36 African Countries: Insights from Multivariate Time Series Analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-051, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2011-051
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/wp2011-051.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arndt Channing & Jones Sam & Tarp Finn, 2010. "Aid, Growth, and Development: Have We Come Full Circle?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-29, December.
    2. Daniel M'Amanja, & Oliver Morrissey, 2006. "Foreign Aid, Investment and Economic Growth in Kenya: a Time Series Approach," Discussion Papers 06/05, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    3. Finn Tarp, 2006. "Aid and Development," Discussion Papers 06-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    4. Dollar, David & Easterly, William, 1999. "The Search for the Key: Aid, Investment and Policies in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(4), pages 546-577, December.
    5. Tseday Jemaneh Mekasha & Finn Tarp, 2013. "Aid and Growth: What Meta-Analysis Reveals," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 564-583, April.
    6. Luigi Ermini & David F. Hendry, 2008. "Log Income vs. Linear Income: An Application of the Encompassing Principle," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 807-827, December.
    7. Easterly, William, 1999. "The ghost of financing gap: testing the growth model used in the international financial institutions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 423-438, December.
    8. Bacha, Edmar L., 1990. "A three-gap model of foreign transfers and the GDP growth rate in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 279-296, April.
    9. Channing Arndt & Sam Jones & Finn Tarp, 2006. "Aid and Development: The Mozambican Case," Discussion Papers 06-13, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    10. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
    11. Charles C. Chang & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Luis Serven, 1998. "Measuring Aid Flows: A New Approach," Research Department Publications 4146, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    12. Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2000. "Aid effectiveness disputed," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 375-398, April.
    13. Heller, Peter S, 1975. "A Model of Public Fiscal Behavior in Developing Countries: Aid, Investment, and Taxation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 429-445, June.
    14. ., 2006. "HIV/AIDS and Development," Chapters, in: David Alexander Clark (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Development Studies, chapter 48, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Kevin D. Hoover & Soren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 2008. "Allowing the Data to Speak Freely: The Macroeconometrics of the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 251-255, May.
    16. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
    17. Kobayashi, Masahito & McAleer, Michael, 1999. "Analytical Power Comparisons Of Nested And Nonnested Tests For Linear And Loglinear Regression Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 99-113, February.
    18. Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2001. "Aid and growth regressions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 547-570, April.
    19. John Mukum Mbaku, 1994. "Foreign aid and economic growth in Cameroon: a reply," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 55-57.
    20. Vasudeva Murthy & Victor Ukpolo & John Mbaku, 1994. "Foreign aid and economic growth in Cameroon: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(10), pages 161-163.
    21. Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2008. "Influential observations in cointegrated VAR models: Danish money demand 1973--2003," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 39-57, March.
    22. Kongsted, Hans Christian, 2005. "Testing the nominal-to-real transformation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 205-225, February.
    23. Karuna Gomanee & Sourafel Girma & Oliver Morrissey, 2005. "Aid and growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: accounting for transmission mechanisms," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(8), pages 1055-1075.
    24. Griffin, Keith, 1970. "Foreign Capital, Domestic Savings and Economic Development," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 32(2), pages 99-112, May.
    25. Papanek, Gustav F, 1972. "The Effect of Aid and other Resource Transfers on Savings and Growth in Less Developed Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 82(327), pages 934-950, September.
    26. Tseday Jemaneh Mekasha & Finn Tarp, 2013. "Aid and Growth: What Meta-Analysis Reveals," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 564-583, April.
    27. Charles C. Chang & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Luis Serven, 1998. "Measuring Aid Flows: A New Approach," Research Department Publications 4146, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    28. Mosley, Paul, 1980. "Aid, Savings and Growth Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 42(2), pages 79-95, May.
    29. Boone, Peter, 1996. "Politics and the effectiveness of foreign aid," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 289-329, February.
    30. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, vinaya, 1998. "The implications of foreign aid fungibility for development assistance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2022, The World Bank.
    31. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    32. Arndt Channing & Jones Sam & Tarp Finn, 2010. "Aid, Growth, and Development: Have We Come Full Circle?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-29, December.
    33. Aris Spanos & David F. Hendry & J. James Reade, 2008. "Linear vs. Log‐linear Unit‐Root Specification: An Application of Mis‐specification Encompassing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 829-847, December.
    34. William Easterly, 2003. "Can Foreign Aid Buy Growth?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 23-48, Summer.
    35. Jusélius, Katarina, 2009. "Special Issue on Using Econometrics for Assessing Economic Models: An Introduction," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 3, pages 1-20.
    36. Malik, Girijasankar, 2008. "Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis of the Six Poorest African Countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 251-260, September.
    37. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
    38. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Katarina Juselius & Niels Framroze Møller & Finn Tarp, 2014. "The Long-Run Impact of Foreign Aid in 36 African Countries: Insights from Multivariate Time Series Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 153-184, April.
    2. Museru, Malimu & Toerien, Francois & Gossel, Sean, 2014. "The Impact of Aid and Public Investment Volatility on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 138-147.
    3. Tseday Jemaneh Mekasha & Finn Tarp, 2013. "Aid and Growth: What Meta-Analysis Reveals," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 564-583, April.
    4. Channing Arndt & Sam Jones & Finn Tarp, 2009. "Aid and Growth: Have We Come Full Circle?," Discussion Papers 09-22, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    5. Lessmann, Christian & Markwardt, Gunther, 2012. "Aid, Growth and Devolution," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1723-1749.
    6. Innocent .U. Duru & Bartholomew .O.N. Okafor & Millicent Adanne Eze & Gabriel .O. Ebenyi, 2020. "Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," Growth, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 7(1), pages 35-50.
    7. Hassen Abda Wako, 2018. "Aid, institutions and economic growth in sub†Saharan Africa: Heterogeneous donors and heterogeneous responses," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 23-44, February.
    8. Łukasz Marć, 2017. "The Impact of Aid on Total Government Expenditures: New Evidence on Fungibility," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 627-663, August.
    9. Mark McGillivray & Simon Feeny & Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink, 2005. "It Works; It Doesn't; It Can, But that Depends...: 50 Years of Controversy Over the Macroeconomic Impact of Development Aid," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2005-54, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Philipp Harms & Matthias Lutz, 2004. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Foreign Aid: A Survey," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2004 2004-11, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    11. Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann & Axel Dreher & Dierk Herzer & Stephan Klasen & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2012. "Does foreign aid really raise per capita income? A time series perspective," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(1), pages 288-313, February.
    12. Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Aid and Conditionality," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4415-4523, Elsevier.
    13. Chauvet, Lisa & Ehrhart, Hélène, 2018. "Aid and growth: evidence from firm-level data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 461-477.
    14. Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu & Lahiri, Sajal & Younas, Javed, 2015. "Financing growth through foreign aid and private foreign loans: Nonlinearities and complementarities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 75-96.
    15. Patrick Guillaumont & Laurent Wagner, 2014. "Aid Effectiveness for Poverty Reduction: Lessons from Cross?country Analyses, with a Special Focus on Vulnerable Countries," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 22(HS01), pages 217-261.
    16. Mark McGillivray & Simon Feeny, 2008. "Aid and Growth in Fragile States," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-03, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Łukasz Marć, 2017. "The Impact of Aid on Total Government Expenditures: New Evidence on Fungibility," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 627-663, August.
    18. Feeny, Simon & Fry, Tim R.L., 2014. "How sustainable is the macroeconomic impact of foreign aid?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1066-1081.
    19. Blessing Chiripanhura & Miguel Niño‐Zarazúa, 2015. "Aid, Political Business Cycles and Growth in Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(8), pages 1387-1421, November.
    20. Kimura, Hidemi & Mori, Yuko & Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2012. "Aid Proliferation and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-10.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2011-051. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/widerfi.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Siméon Rapin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/widerfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.