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How Instability Lowers African Growth ?

Listed author(s):
  • Jean-François BRUN

    ()

    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

  • Patrick GUILLAUMONT

    ()

    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

  • Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY

    ()

    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

This paper aims to assess the role of instabilities on Africa low rates of growth during the seventies and eighties, using cross-section econometric estimates, on a sample of African and non African countries and two pooled decades. Africa exhibits higher "primary" instabilities (climatic, terms of trade and political instabilities), i.e. instabilities which are structural rather than the result of policy. These "primary" instabilities influence Africa growth, through a lower growth residual more than a lower average rate of investment. They do so by their impact on economic policy, which is evidenced by their influence on two "intermediate" instabilities, the instabilities of the rate of investment and of the real exchange rate, which significantly lower the rate of growth.

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Paper provided by CERDI in its series Working Papers with number 199712.

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Length: 21
Date of creation: 1997
Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:56
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  1. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
  2. Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont, Sylviane & Plane, Patrick, 1988. "Participating in African monetary unions: An alternative evaluation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 569-576, May.
  3. Dawe, David, 1996. "A new look at the effects of export instability on investment and growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1905-1914, December.
  4. Lussier, Martine, 1993. "Impacts of Exports on Economic Performance: A Comparative Study," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 2(1), pages 106-127, May.
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  7. Moran, Cristian, 1983. "Export fluctuations and economic growth : An empirical analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 195-218.
  8. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
  9. Patrick Guillaumont, 1994. "Adjustment policy and agricultural development," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 141-155, 03.
  10. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1990. "Exports and economic growth: The African case," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 831-835, June.
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  12. Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October.
  13. Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712.
  14. Collier, Paul & Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont, Sylviane & Gunning, Jan Willem, 1997. "Redesigning conditionality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1399-1407, September.
  15. Savvides, Andreas, 1995. "Economic growth in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 449-458, March.
  16. Ojo, Oladeji & Oshikoya, Temitope, 1995. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: Some African Results," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 4(2), pages 163-191, October.
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