La distance abolie ? Critères et mesure de la mondialisation du commerce extérieur
We oppose two concepts of trade globalization : (1) the increase of the countries trade to GDP ratio ("globalization-integration"), (2) the alleviation of related to distance obstacles to trade ("geographical globalization"). We choose as a criterion of a possible geographical globalization the decrease of the absolute value of the (negative) distance elasticity of bilateral trade. The trend of this elasticity is estimated through a panel gravitation model of world trade covering the years 1962 to 1995 and a large sample of countries at very different levels of development. Contrary to the globalization-integration, a geographical globalization does not appear. We find a significative position trend of the absolute value of the distance elasticity of trade. Moreover trade between neighbour countries is increasing. So impact of distance has not been decreasing, but is reinforcing. An augmented gravitation model also allows to test significantly the assumptions of scale economies and of decreasing marginal costs of distance. This augmented model evidences again the increasing trend of the impact of distance on trade.
|Date of creation:||1998|
|Publication status:||Published in , 1999, pages 111-138|
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