IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

The impact of world price instability on agricultural supply according to several macroeconomic factors

Listed author(s):
  • Julie SUBERVIE

    ()

This paper aims at analyzing the effect of world price instability on the aggregate agricultural supply of developing countries and determining to what extent this effect depends on the macroeconomic environment. Producers of agricultural commodity-exporting countries are particularly vulnerable to the fluctuations of world prices : they are exposed to price shocks and their ability to cope with them is weak. But the effectiveness of risk coping strategies is conditional on the influence of macroeconomic factors. We test the impact of international price instability on the aggregate agricultural supply, taking account of some features of the national environment (infrastructure, inflation, and financial deepening). The analysis is based on a sample of 25 countries during the period 1961-2002. Results from panel data highlight a significant negative effect of international price instability on aggregate agricultural supply. Moreover, they show that high inflation, weak infrastructure and poorly developed financial system contribute to reinforce this effect.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://publi.cerdi.org/ed/2006/2006.04.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by CERDI in its series Working Papers with number 200604.

as
in new window

Length: 29
Date of creation: 2006
Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:802
Contact details of provider: Postal:
65 Bd. F. Mitterrand, 63000 Clermont-Ferrand

Phone: (33-4) 73 17 74 00
Fax: (33-4) 73 17 74 28
Web page: http://cerdi.org/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Marcel Fafchamps, 2003. "Rural Poverty, Risk and Development," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3127.
  2. Satheesh V. Aradhyula & Matthew T. Holt, 1988. "Risk Behavior and Rational Expectations in the U.S. Broiler Market," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 88-wp33, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
  3. Lisa CHAUVET & Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Pierre JACQUET & Bertrand SAVOYE, 2003. "Attenuating through Aid the Vulnerability to Price Shocks," Working Papers 200325, CERDI.
  4. B. Wade Brorsen & Jean-Paul Chavas & Warren R. Grant, 1987. "A Market Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Risk on the U.S. Rice Industry," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(4), pages 733-739.
  5. Heath, John & Binswanger, Hans, 1996. "Natural resource degradation effects of poverty and population growth are largely policy-induced: the case of Colombia," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 65-84, February.
  6. Richard E. Just, 1974. "An Investigation of the Importance of Risk in Farmers' Decisions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(1), pages 14-25.
  7. Hans P. Binswanger & Klaus Deininger, 1997. "Explaining Agricultural and Agrarian Policies in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 1958-2005, December.
  8. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1993. "Credit Market Constraints, Consumption Smoothing, and the Accumulation of Durable Production Assets in Low-Income Countries: Investment in Bullocks in India," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 223-244, April.
  9. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
  10. Rajan, Raghuram G. & Zingales, Luigi, 2003. "The great reversals: the politics of financial development in the twentieth century," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 5-50, July.
  11. Paul Mosley, 1999. "Micro-macro linkages in financial markets: the impact of financial liberalization on access to rural credit in four African countries," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 367-384.
  12. Frances Antonovitz & Richard Green, 1990. "Alternative Estimates of Fed Beef Supply Response to Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(2), pages 475-487.
  13. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
  14. Satheesh V. Aradhyula & Matthew T. Holt, 1989. "Risk Behavior and Rational Expectations in the U.S. Broiler Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(4), pages 892-902.
  15. Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Kangni KPODAR, 2004. "Développement financier, instabilité financière et réduction de la pauvreté," Working Papers 200429, CERDI.
  16. Stefan Dercon, 2002. "Income Risk, Coping Strategies, and Safety Nets," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 17(2), pages 141-166, September.
  17. Schiff, Maurice & Montenegro, Claudio E, 1997. "Aggregate Agricultural Supply Response in Developing Countries: A Survey of Selected Issues," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 393-410, January.
  18. Christopher Hurt & Philip Garcia, 1982. "The Impact of Price Risk on Sow Farrowings, 1967–78," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 64(3), pages 565-568.
  19. Binswanger, Hans & Yang, Maw-Cheng & Bowers, Alan & Mundlak, Yair, 1987. "On the determinants of cross-country aggregate agricultural supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 111-131.
  20. Weir, Sharada & Knight, John, 2004. "Externality Effects of Education: Dynamics of the Adoption and Diffusion of an Innovation in Rural Ethiopia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 93-113, October.
  21. Canning, David, 1998. "A Database of World Stocks of Infrastructure, 1950-95," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 529-547, September.
  22. John Knight & Sharada Weir & Tassew Woldehanna, 2003. "The role of education in facilitating risk-taking and innovation in agriculture," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 1-22.
  23. Holt, Matthew & Aradhyula, Satheesh V., 1990. "Price Risk in Supply Equations: An Application of Garch Time-Series Models to the U.S. Broiler Market," Staff General Research Papers Archive 276, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  24. William Lin, 1977. "Measuring Aggregate Supply Response under Instability," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 59(5), pages 903-907.
  25. Rulon D. Pope & Richard E. Just, 1991. "On Testing the Structure of Risk Preferences in Agricultural Supply Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(3), pages 743-748.
  26. Mundlak, Yair & Larson, Don & Butzer, Ritz, 1997. "The determinants of agricultural production : a cross-country analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1827, The World Bank.
  27. Jean-Paul Chavas & Matthew T. Holt, 1990. "Acreage Decisions Under Risk: The Case of Corn and Soybeans," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(3), pages 529-538.
  28. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Holt, Matthew T, 1996. "Economic Behavior under Uncertainty: A Joint Analysis of Risk Preferences and Technology," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 329-335, May.
  29. Matthew T. Holt, 1993. "Risk Response in the Beef Marketing Channel: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH-M Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(3), pages 559-571.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:802. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vincent Mazenod)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.