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Volatilité des cours des produits miniers et vulnérabilité de l’économie: est-ce que la croissance économique va s’essouffler en RDC?
[Volatility of the prices of the mining products and vulnerability of the economy: will the economic growth be blown in RDC?]

Author

Listed:
  • Izu, Akhenaton

Abstract

Inspired of the decrease of the prices of oil between January 2014 and January 2016, this article wonders about the capacity of resilience of the congolese economy in relation to the decrease of the mining product prices noticed since June 2015. The econometric analysis teaches that that a decrease of 10% of the export returns entails a reduction of the growth rate of 4% and a decrease of 20% of export returns entails a decrease of 9%. If the tendency observed since June 2015 continues, the economic growth will be blown in 2018 according to our simulations. Thus, we propose the creation of a mining fund to palliate the volatility of the mining product prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Izu, Akhenaton, 2016. "Volatilité des cours des produits miniers et vulnérabilité de l’économie: est-ce que la croissance économique va s’essouffler en RDC? [Volatility of the prices of the mining products and vulnerabil," MPRA Paper 74751, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Sep 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:74751
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74751/1/MPRA_paper_74751.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillaumont, Patrick & Jeanneney, Sylviane Guillaumont & Brun, Jean-Francois, 1999. "How Instability Lowers African Growth," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(1), pages 87-107, March.
    2. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 47-100, January.
    3. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-751, August.
    4. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
    5. Dawe, David, 1996. "A new look at the effects of export instability on investment and growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1905-1914, December.
    6. Joël CARIOLLE, 2011. "L’Indice de vulnérabilité économique rétrospectif - Mise à jour 2010," Working Papers I09, FERDI.
    7. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "Volatility and the natural resource curse," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 727-760, October.
    8. Joël CARIOLLE, 2012. "Mesurer l’instabilité macroéconomique - Applications aux données de recettes d’exportation, 1970-2005," Working Papers I14, FERDI.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Pinshi, 2020. "COVID-19 uncertainty and monetary policy," Working Papers hal-02566796, HAL.
    2. PINSHI, Christian P., 2020. "Uncertainty, monetary policy and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 100147, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; resilience; volatility of the prices; vulnerability.;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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