IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ira/wpaper/202218.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

"Does economic complexity reduce the probability of a fiscal crisis?"

Author

Listed:
  • José E. Gómez-González

    (Lehman College, City University of New York, New York, USA.)

  • Jorge M. Uribe

    (Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain.)

  • Oscar M. Valencia

    (Fiscal Management Division, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, USA.)

Abstract

Higher economic complexity of a country reduces the probability of suffering a fiscal crisis between 46% and 57%. Along with institutional factors, complexity is shown to be sufficient to describe the risk of facing episodes of fiscal distress. On the contrary, the role of variables frequently emphasized by the literature and policy markets, such as the debt-output ratio, real growth, inflation, terms of trade or fiscal balance, is very modest or insignificant. Development strategies that aim for greater economic complexity also promise to reduce countries’ fiscal vulnerability.

Suggested Citation

  • José E. Gómez-González & Jorge M. Uribe & Oscar M. Valencia, 2022. ""Does economic complexity reduce the probability of a fiscal crisis?"," IREA Working Papers 202218, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:202218
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ub.edu/irea/working_papers/2022/202218.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Nepelski & Giuditta De Prato, 2020. "Technological complexity and economic development," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 448-470, May.
    2. Cesar A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, 2009. "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity," Papers 0909.3890, arXiv.org.
    3. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Andrés Velasco, 2012. "Macroeconomic Performance During Commodity Price Booms and Busts," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(4), pages 570-599, December.
    4. Y N Raju & Debashis Acharya & Aviral Tiwari, 2020. "Revisiting the Volatility- Growth relationship: Some cross country evidence, 1978–2017," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1826655-182, January.
    5. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    6. Hausmann, Ricardo & Gavin, Michael, 1996. "Securing Stability and Growth in a Shock Prone Region: The Policy Challenge for Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6191, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Deleidi, Matteo & Iafrate, Francesca & Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2020. "Public investment fiscal multipliers: An empirical assessment for European countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 354-365.
    8. Fatás, Antonio & Summers, Lawrence H., 2018. "The permanent effects of fiscal consolidations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 238-250.
    9. Nguyen, Canh Phuc, 2022. "Does economic complexity matter for the shadow economy?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 210-227.
    10. Lo, Gaye-Del & Marcelin, Isaac & Bassène, Théophile & Sène, Babacar, 2022. "The Russo-Ukrainian war and financial markets: the role of dependence on Russian commodities," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    11. Adam B. Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg & Rebecca Henderson, 1993. "Geographic Localization of Knowledge Spillovers as Evidenced by Patent Citations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 577-598.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    13. Deleidi, Matteo & Mazzucato, Mariana & Semieniuk, Gregor, 2020. "Neither crowding in nor out: Public direct investment mobilising private investment into renewable electricity projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    14. Mlachila, Montfort & Ouedraogo, Rasmané, 2020. "Financial development curse in resource-rich countries: The role of commodity price shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 84-96.
    15. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    16. Romero, João P. & Gramkow, Camila, 2021. "Economic complexity and greenhouse gas emissions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    17. Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Carolyn Chisadza & Matthew Clance, 2022. "The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and output volatility: High vs. low income countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 566-580, May.
    18. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
    19. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "Reprint of The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    20. Audretsch, David B & Feldman, Maryann P, 1996. "R&D Spillovers and the Geography of Innovation and Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 630-640, June.
    21. Hartmann, Dominik & Guevara, Miguel R. & Jara-Figueroa, Cristian & Aristarán, Manuel & Hidalgo, César A., 2017. "Linking Economic Complexity, Institutions, and Income Inequality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 75-93.
    22. Hallak, Juan Carlos, 2006. "Product quality and the direction of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 238-265, January.
    23. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(3).
    24. Shu-Chin Lin & Dong-Hyeon Kim, 2014. "The link between economic growth and growth volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 43-63, February.
    25. Mr. Gonzalo Salinas, 2021. "Proximity and Horizontal Policies: The Backbone of Export Diversification," IMF Working Papers 2021/064, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Sweet, Cassandra & Eterovic, Dalibor, 2019. "Do patent rights matter? 40 years of innovation, complexity and productivity," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 78-93.
    27. Mehrotra, Neil R. & Sergeyev, Dmitriy, 2021. "Debt sustainability in a low interest rate world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 1-18.
    28. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447.
    29. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "Volatility and the natural resource curse," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 727-760, October.
    30. Badinger, Harald, 2010. "Output volatility and economic growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 15-18, January.
    31. Atif R. Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2022. "A Goldilocks Theory of Fiscal Deficits," NBER Working Papers 29707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Deleidi, Matteo & Mazzucato, Mariana, 2021. "Directed innovation policies and the supermultiplier: An empirical assessment of mission-oriented policies in the US economy," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(2).
    33. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Loayza, Norman, 2004. "Volatility and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3184, The World Bank.
    34. Francesca Caselli & Mr. Hamid R Davoodi & Carlos Goncalves & Mr. Gee Hee Hong & Andresa Lagerborg & Mr. Paulo A Medas & Anh D. M. Nguyen & Jiae Yoo, 2022. "The Return to Fiscal Rules," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2022/002, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Hausmann, Ricardo & Hidalgo, Cesar, 2014. "The Atlas of Economic Complexity: Mapping Paths to Prosperity," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262525429, December.
    36. Lee, Keun & Ki, Jee-hoon, 2017. "Rise of latecomers and catch-up cycles in the world steel industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 365-375.
    37. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    38. Maggioni, Daniela & Lo Turco, Alessia & Gallegati, Mauro, 2016. "Does product complexity matter for firms' output volatility?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 94-109.
    39. Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2005. "Democracy, Volatility, and Economic Development," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 348-361, May.
    40. Barbaros Güneri & A. Yasemin Yalta, 2021. "Does economic complexity reduce output volatility in developing countries?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 411-431, July.
    41. Pierre-Alexandre Balland & Ron Boschma & Joan Crespo & David L. Rigby, 2019. "Smart specialization policy in the European Union: relatedness, knowledge complexity and regional diversification," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(9), pages 1252-1268, September.
    42. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
    43. Aamena Alshamsi & Flávio L. Pinheiro & Cesar A. Hidalgo, 2018. "Optimal diversification strategies in the networks of related products and of related research areas," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-7, December.
    44. Liu, Qiang & Zhao, Zhongwei & Liu, Yiran & He, Yao, 2022. "Natural resources commodity prices volatility, economic performance and environment: Evaluating the role of oil rents," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    45. Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin, 1996. "Securing Stability and Growth in a Shock Prone Region: The Policy Challenge for Latin America," Research Department Publications 4020, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M. & Valencia, Oscar, 2024. "Sovereign Risk and Economic Complexity," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13393, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge M. Uribe & Oscar M. Valencia, 2024. "Asymmetric Sovereign Risk: Implications for Climate Change Preparation," IREA Working Papers 202401, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2024.
    3. Jorge M. Uribe, 2023. ""Fiscal crises and climate change"," IREA Working Papers 202303, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2023.
    4. Giraldo, Carlos & Giraldo, Iader & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M., 2023. "An explained extreme gradient boosting approach for identifying the time-varying determinants of sovereign risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    5. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge M. Uribe & Oscar M. Valencia, 2023. "Sovereign Risk and Economic Complexity: Machine Learning Insights on Causality and Prediction," IREA Working Papers 202315, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2023.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge M. Uribe & Oscar M. Valencia, 2023. "Sovereign Risk and Economic Complexity: Machine Learning Insights on Causality and Prediction," IREA Working Papers 202315, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2023.
    2. Hidalgo, César A., 2023. "The policy implications of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(9).
    3. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Effect of the duration of membership in the GATT/WTO on economic growth volatility," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 448-467.
    4. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Boschma, Ron, 2022. "Do scientific capabilities in specific domains matter for technological diversification in European regions?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(10).
    5. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M. & Valencia, Oscar, 2024. "Sovereign Risk and Economic Complexity," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13393, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Pinheiro, Flávio L. & Hartmann, Dominik & Boschma, Ron & Hidalgo, César A., 2022. "The time and frequency of unrelated diversification," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    7. Bernardo Caldarola & Dario Mazzilli & Lorenzo Napolitano & Aurelio Patelli & Angelica Sbardella, 2023. "Economic complexity and the sustainability transition: A review of data, methods, and literature," Papers 2308.07172, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    8. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of the Duration of Membership in the GATT/WTO on Human Development in Developed and Developing Countries," EconStor Preprints 265061, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    9. Abbasiharofteh, Milad & Kogler, Dieter F. & Lengyel, Balázs, 2023. "Atypical combinations of technologies in regional co-inventor networks," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 52(10), pages 1-1.
    10. Wonsub Eum & Jeong‐Dong Lee, 2022. "Alternative paths of diversification for developing countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2336-2355, November.
    11. Nguyen, Canh Phuc, 2022. "Does economic complexity matter for the shadow economy?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 210-227.
    12. Daniela MAGGIONI & Alessia LO TURCO & Mauro GALLEGATI, 2014. "Does export complexity matter for firms' output volatility?," Working Papers 407, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    13. Maggioni, Daniela & Lo Turco, Alessia & Gallegati, Mauro, 2016. "Does product complexity matter for firms' output volatility?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 94-109.
    14. Belmartino, Andrea, 2022. "Green & non-green relatedness: challenges and diversification opportunities for regional economies in Argentina," Nülan. Deposited Documents 3697, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Centro de Documentación.
    15. C'esar A. Hidalgo, 2022. "The Policy Implications of Economic Complexity," Papers 2205.02164, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    16. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Do Unilateral Trade Preferences Help Reduce Poverty in Beneficiary Countries?," EconStor Preprints 247346, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    17. Vanessa Echeverri & Juan C. Duque & Daniel E. Restrepo, 2021. "Identifying poverty traps based on the network structure of economic output," Papers 2108.05488, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    18. Bahar, Dany & Rosenow, Samuel & Stein, Ernesto & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2019. "Export take-offs and acceleration: Unpacking cross-sector linkages in the evolution of comparative advantage," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 48-60.
    19. Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi & Mohamed Chakroun, 2021. "Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: a Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 811-841, June.
    20. Diogo Ferraz & Fernanda P. S. Falguera & Enzo B. Mariano & Dominik Hartmann, 2021. "Linking Economic Complexity, Diversification, and Industrial Policy with Sustainable Development: A Structured Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-29, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt-sustainability; Sovereign-crises; Fiscal-revenues; Duration analysis; Debt-to-GDP ratio. JEL classification: E02; E44; E62; F34.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:202218. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alicia García (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feubaes.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.