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Sovereign default risk and volatility

Listed author(s):
  • Daude, Christian

In a model of sovereign debt with endogenous default, we find a non-monotonic relationship between default risk and volatility, reflecting a trade-off between prudence and the insurance value of default. We show that this feature also holds in the data.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176511003338
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 114 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 47-50

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:114:y:2012:i:1:p:47-50
DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.09.004
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Gabriel Cuadra & Horacio Sapriza, 2006. "Sovereign Default, Interest Rates and Political Uncertainty in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 2006-02, Banco de México.
  2. Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Why is fiscal policy often procyclical?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2090, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  3. Juan Blyde & Christian Daude & Eduardo Fernández-Arias, 2010. "Output collapses and productivity destruction," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 359-387, June.
  4. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2008. "A Solution to the Disconnect between Country Risk and Business Cycle Theories," NBER Working Papers 13861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June.
  6. Gabriel Cuadra & Juan M. Sanchez & Horacio Sapriza, 2009. "Fiscal policy and default risk in emerging markets," Working Paper 09-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  7. Emine Boz, 2009. "Sovereign Default, Private Sector Creditors and the IFIs," IMF Working Papers 09/46, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Alesina, Alberto & Özler, Sule & Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
  9. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2010. "Online Appendix to "Quantitative properties of sovereign default models: solution methods"," Technical Appendices 08-133, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  10. Arellano, Cristina, 2008. "Default risk and income fluctuations in emerging economies," MPRA Paper 7867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises and Sovereign Credit Ratings," NBER Working Papers 8738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "Debt intolerance," MPRA Paper 13932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
  14. Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza & Juan Carlos Hatchondo, 2010. "Quantitative properties of sovereign default models; solution methods matter," IMF Working Papers 10/100, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Luis Catão & Sandeep Kapur, 2006. "Volatility and the Debt-Intolerance Paradox," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(2), pages 1-1.
  16. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2008. "Heterogeneous borrowers in quantitative models of sovereign default," Working Paper 07-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  17. Michael Tomz & Mark L. J. Wright, 2007. "Do Countries Default in "Bad Times" ?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 352-360, 04-05.
  18. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Working Paper 08-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  19. Yue, Vivian Z., 2010. "Sovereign default and debt renegotiation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 176-187, March.
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