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Australia and New Zealand CER Agreement and Breakpoints in Bilateral Trade: An Application of the Wald-type Test

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Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of the Australia-New Zealand Closer Economic Relations (CER) Trade Agreement on bilateral trade of each member country by using historical time series data before and after the implementation of the CER. We determined the existence of endogenously determined structural breaks over the last 30 years. The Vogelsang (1997) Wald-type testing procedure is then used to test for the existence of a break at an unknown time in the trend function of the dynamic time series. The advantage of this model is that the procedure does not impose any restriction on the nature of the data since it allows for either trending or unit root series, or both, in the model. Using a Wald-type test for detecting breaks in the trend function of a univariate time series, we found that a significant trend break detected in New Zealand in 1988 coincided with the extensive review of the CER in 1988.

Suggested Citation

  • Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu & Pahlavani, Mosayeb, 2006. "Australia and New Zealand CER Agreement and Breakpoints in Bilateral Trade: An Application of the Wald-type Test," Economics Working Papers wp06-06, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp06-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jayant Menon, 1994. "Trade Liberalization and Intra-Industry Specialization: The Australian Experience," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-107, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    2. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    3. Kocenda, Evzen, 2005. "Beware of breaks in exchange rates: Evidence from European transition countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 307-324, September.
    4. Mosayeb Pahlavani & Abbas Valadkhani & Andrew C. Worthington, 2005. "The impact of financial deregulation on monetary aggregates and interest rates in Australia," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 157-163, May.
    5. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    6. Amelia Santos-Paulino & A. P. Thirlwall, 2004. "The impact of trade liberalisation on exports, imports and the balance of payments of developing countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages 50-72, February.
    7. Rolf Färe & Shawna Grosskopf & Dimitri Margaritis, 2001. "Productivity Trends in Australian and New Zealand Manufacturing," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 34(2), pages 125-134.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trend breaks; Wald-type testing; Australia-New Zealand integration;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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