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An Incomplete Markets Explanation to the UIP Puzzle

  • Katrin Rabitsch

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

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    A large literature has related the failure of interest rate parity in the foreign exchange market to the existence of a time-varying risk premium. Nevertheless, most modern open economy DSGE models imply a (near) perfect interest rate parity condition. This paper presents a stylized two-country incomplete-markets model in which countries have strong precautionary motives because they face international liquidity constraints, the presence of which successfully generates a time-varying risk premium: the country that has accumulated debt after experiencing relative worse times has stronger precautionary motives and its asset carries a risk premium.

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    File URL: https://epub.wu.ac.at/4109/1/wp171.pdf
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    Paper provided by Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number wuwp171.

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    Date of creation: Mar 2014
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    Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp171
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    Web page: http://www.wu.ac.at/economics/en

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    1. Hollifield, B. & Yaron, A., 1999. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium: Real and Nominal Factors," GSIA Working Papers 1999-17, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    2. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2009. "Time-Varying Risk, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates in General Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(3), pages 851-878.
    3. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2009. "On the international transmission of technology shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 45-59, June.
    4. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    5. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2004. "International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 4746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Leduc, Sylvain, 2002. "Incomplete markets, borrowing constraints, and the foreign exchange risk premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 957-980, December.
    7. Kopecky, Karen A. & Suen, Richard M. H., 2009. "Finite State Markov-Chain Approximations to Highly Persistent Processes," MPRA Paper 17201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. David K. Backus & Gregor W. Smith, 1993. "Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Dynamic Economies with Non-Traded Goods," Working Papers 1252, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    9. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
    10. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    11. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 1999. "Financial Autarky and International Business Cycles," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 320, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 30 Apr 2000.
    12. Marianne Baxter & Mario J. Crucini, 1992. "Business cycles and the asset structure of foreign trade," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 59, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    13. Ian Martin, 2011. "The Forward Premium Puzzle in a Two-Country World," NBER Working Papers 17564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Alexis Anagnostopoulos, 2004. "Consumption and Debt Dynamics with (Rarely Binding) Borrowing Constraints," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/34, European University Institute.
    15. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-96, March.
    16. Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Aiyagari, S Rao, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 659-84, August.
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